The new energy sector is one of the sectors with the most obvious adjustment range in the A-share market this year, but the "blood return" has been obvious since the end of April. As of May 20, the China Securities new energy index has increased by 30.52% since April 27.
What are the main reasons for the recent strong performance of the new energy sector? Is there a time to get on the bus? How should ordinary investors layout?
In this regard, the reporter of China fund daily interviewed a number of excellent fund managers in the field of new energy, including Zheng chengran, Growth Investment Department of GF, Cui Chenlong, executive investment director and fund manager of Qianhai open source fund, Yao Zhipeng, growth style investment director of Harvest Fund, Lu Bin, investment director of HSBC Jinxin and proposed fund manager of times pioneer fund, Ren Linna, fund manager of China Merchants Amway, sun haozhong, fund manager of CITIC Prudential Cao Chunlin, fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin new energy vehicles.
These people believe that the sharp decline in the new energy sector in the early stage, good fundamentals and the resumption of work and production after the improvement of the epidemic have become the reasons for the recent performance of the new energy sector. Investors should pay attention to the large fluctuation of this sector in the layout of new energy field through funds, and it is best to use fixed investment layout.
multiple factors triggered the rebound of new energy
China Fund News: what is the logic of the recent strong rebound in the new energy sector?
Zheng chengran: first analyze the reasons for the decline since this year. Since the beginning of the year, most A-share sectors have experienced a round of large-scale adjustment; In the past, the new energy sector was the first to rise because of many factors.
Accordingly, the recent rebound will be relatively strong. In terms of segmentation, the rebound of photovoltaic sector mainly comes from solid fundamentals. On the one hand, the industry itself is less affected by the internal and external environment, and the demand abroad, especially in Europe, is still strong; On the other hand, the impact on China's industrial chain is not too great, and the performance expectation is relatively clear. After the factors suppressing valuation are alleviated, the natural rebound will be greater. The rebound of the electric vehicle industry chain is mainly due to the market's expectation of repair after the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, as well as the possible subsequent stimulus policies.
Cui Chenlong: due to the short-term substantial impact on the supply chain, the new energy vehicle sector has a relatively large range in the last round of adjustment. At present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has been controllable, and the resumption of work and production is proceeding rapidly. The market has strong confidence in the recovery of the whole new energy vehicle supply chain. Therefore, the recent rebound has quickly repaired some of the previous decline.
Yao Zhipeng: first of all, the overall valuation of the sector is low. The current valuation of important leading companies may be in a very low position in history, which is roughly comparable to the level in 2018. In this state, no matter any negative news appears, the space for the sector to continue down will be relatively limited; At the same time, once there is good news, the sector may have a significant upward trend.
Lu Bin: I think there are two main reasons. First, after the adjustment in the first four months, especially from March to April, the valuation of some high-quality growth stocks has returned to a relatively low historical level. Even after we make performance adjustments according to relatively pessimistic expectations, their valuations are still attractive.
Secondly, the epidemic in March and April made the market have relatively pessimistic expectations for the performance in 2022, which also led to the double killing of profitability and valuation of many companies. However, after the investigation, we found that according to the feedback of many enterprises and subdivided industries, the impact of the epidemic may not be as limited as you think.
Ren Linna: we believe that the long-term growth logic of "high-quality supply promotes the improvement of penetration" has not been destroyed. In the early decline process, the long-term value of some high-quality enterprises is more significant.
optimistic about this round of new energy rebound
not pessimistic about the future
China Fund News: in your opinion, how persistent is this round of rebound in the new energy sector? What do you think of the future market? What risks need to be vigilant at the same time?
Zheng chengran: personally, I am optimistic about this round of rebound of new energy. In fact, the development of new energy is still in the stage of explosive growth, which will show this explosive growth at a certain point in time, thus driving a sustained high growth rate worldwide.
If the factors of trading chips and valuation are alleviated and the fundamentals continue to be strong, the future market of good companies in the new energy sector is worth looking forward to. Perhaps the biggest risk comes from factors such as trade policies between countries.
Cui Chenlong: without the influence of other sudden negative factors, we expect the sustainability of the rebound to be better. In terms of risk, consider whether the Fed will accelerate the rate increase in the second half of the year than expected under the pressure of high inflation. If accelerated, the global equity market will face greater short-term pressure.
Ren Linna: in the long run, the new energy sector deserves investors' attention from the three dimensions of "economy", "product power" and "energy security". In the short term, sustainability includes space and time. We do not judge time. Space depends on the matching degree of Fundamentals (growth rate, profit quality, etc.) and valuation.
Sun haozhong: at the current time point, I am not pessimistic about the future. After the adjustment at the end of April, in the direction of new energy vehicles, for example, lithium resources have basically fallen to about five times PE. Then, some companies with a poor pattern in the middle reaches have fallen to less than 20 times this year, and those with a better pattern have also fallen to less than 30 times. This is still a relatively low valuation level in history.
Cao Chunlin: if the epidemic can be well controlled, most of the capacity losses since April can be made up, because the supply bottleneck of the new energy sector this year is lithium resources, and the production of lithium is not affected by the epidemic; Of course, another important observation point for the new energy industry is demand: in the early stage, due to the excessive rise of lithium resources, the battery cost has increased significantly, and the price of new energy vehicles has also increased accordingly. In addition, the market is worried that the demand is not good, which is also one of the reasons for the sector adjustment.
However, in fact, we have observed that the demand for new energy vehicles has not been greatly affected.
optimistic about lithium battery, photovoltaic and new energy operators
China Fund News: among the internal sub sectors of the new energy sector, which sub tracks are you more optimistic about? Why?
Zheng chengran: relatively speaking, I pay more attention to photovoltaic. As we often say, "spring theory", that is, the spring with the best compression elasticity has the strongest toughness. On the one hand, the decline of silicon material price is expected to bring a strong rebound in middle and lower reaches manufacturing; On the other hand, the demand for photovoltaic is also multi-point flowering in the world. Not only Europe, but also China, the United States, Southeast Asia, South America and other regions are optimistic about photovoltaic energy.
The growth of electric vehicles is relatively more concentrated in the outbreak of Europe and China. Therefore, the volatility and certainty on the demand side need to be observed again. If the marginal demand weakens and rises more before, the valuation of the electric vehicle sector will bear some pressure.
Cui Chenlong: in the direction of new energy, we are optimistic about three sub circuits: lithium battery, photovoltaic and new energy operators.
Photovoltaic is the production end of clean energy, which is the representative technology of the production end, and lithium battery is the representative technology of the energy storage end, that is, the application end. The new energy operator is an industry with long-term stable operation and stable growth, and there is a lot of space. We are still in the early stage of the energy revolution, and the development space of the whole industry is huge, and the above three specific directions represent the development direction of advanced science and technology in the development process of the whole industry.
Yao Zhipeng: on the whole, we are more optimistic about the new energy vehicle sector. At the logical level, we prefer middle and downstream enterprises, or we are more optimistic about downstream enterprises at this time point than before. Because now it has been gradually seen that the certainty of downstream enterprises is significantly improved, especially through terminal price transmission, which has been continuously verified.
Lu Bin: at present, "carbon neutralization" is a policy with high global consensus. Therefore, we believe that the whole "carbon neutralization" sector has long-term opportunities. In terms of risks, China's policy expectations have been relatively stable. At present, we are more concerned about overseas risks. Including geopolitical conflicts, commodity prices and the intensity and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate hike.
Ren Linna: photovoltaic is preferred. The reason is very simple. The fundamentals are relatively strong. However, we suggest that investors should pay attention to the following points when studying and judging the photovoltaic industry: first, the global perspective. Second, from the perspective of industrial chain. Third, pay attention to the four words "energy security".
Sun haozhong: for subsequent new energy investment, relatively speaking, in the direction of new energy vehicles, brand vehicles, batteries and some competitive and relatively good links, such as diaphragm and negative electrode, deserve attention. In the direction of photovoltaic, relative attention is paid to integrated construction, inverter, adhesive film, etc.
Cao Chunlin: the sharp rise in lithium resources has affected the profit distribution of various sub sectors, so in the short term, lithium stocks with more mineral resources will perform better, and battery manufacturing will be under certain pressure; In the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the leading battery enterprises and battery material enterprises in the world; The overall competitive pressure of automobile enterprises is still relatively large. Only those enterprises that are far ahead in the wave of electrification and intellectualization can have the opportunity; After electrification, intelligence is booming, and the intelligent track also deserves special attention.
note that the new energy sector fluctuates greatly
investors have the best layout and fixed investment
China Fund News: for investors, how to choose funds for the opportunity of new energy layout? How to operate? What should be done if the holding encounters obvious pullback?
Zheng chengran: the new energy sector is naturally volatile. It is suggested that investors should spend more time to understand the investment framework and philosophy of fund managers before layout to see whether they can resonate with their own cognition and agree with his ideas; Second, we should make psychological expectations for the possible decline in the net value of products. It is best to invest with long money that we can't use temporarily.
Cui Chenlong: it is suggested that investors should choose recognized funds and fund managers to invest after they have a detailed understanding of the investment ideas of different fund managers in combination with their own economic conditions. In terms of operation, fixed investment is more recommended.
Yao Zhipeng: in the face of a large market retreat, investors can enter the market by means of fixed investment. The biggest significance of the fixed investment mode may also be that if you want to buy by yourself at the bottom of the market, you may "shake your hands" and have no way to start, but you can "start" at such a position through the fixed investment.
Lu Bin: on the one hand, we can choose new energy theme funds with good long-term performance. On the other hand, we can also use fixed investment and other investment tools to share the investment cost and reduce the volatility of the investment portfolio relative to the market.
