Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the medium-term slow rise is still in the early stage, and the four main lines continue to rotate
The trend improvement of local epidemic situation and the joint force of policies began to appear. The improvement of fundamentals is expected to drive the medium-term repair of A-Shares for several months. At present, it is still in the initial stage. The market rhythm is characterized by slow rise, and the four main lines of structure continue to rotate. In terms of trend, the impact of China’s local epidemic situation has improved. The resumption of work and production and the resumption of business and market will be gradual. The implementation of steady growth policies takes into account the density and intensity. The resultant force of policies begins to appear. After China’s economy has reached the low point in April, it is expected to return to the good trend month by month in May, and the growth rate of A-share earnings will also pick up after bottoming in the second quarter.
In terms of rhythm, this round of repair market is characterized by slow rise. At present, it is still in the initial stage. Epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production are a gradual process, and external disturbances have not been completely eliminated. Although market sentiment has been repaired, it is still low, institutional positions are still low, and the inflow rate of incremental funds is relatively slow. Structurally, the four main lines continue to rotate. It is suggested to firmly lay out the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate throughout the year, continue to focus on the main line of resumption of work and production in the quarter, and pay attention to the main line of consumption restoration in the month.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A-Shares has appeared
Since the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in November 2014, the correlation between China and the United States stock markets has increased, but it is still weakly correlated. Among them, the phenomenon of A-Shares falling with each other is obvious. Since the end of April this year, after the sharp decline of US stocks, A-Shares have not followed the decline, which is due to the dislocation of economic cycles between China and the United States and the different valuation positions of stock markets. The bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A-Shares has appeared, and positive factors are accumulating. At this stage, new infrastructure is better, such as digital economy and low-carbon economy. In the future, we will gradually pay attention to consumption.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the market is still in the long window period of eating market
Xiaoman wins Wanquan, and the market is still in the long window period of the meal market. There is still room for the index to rebound, but we should be vigilant against the depletion of long momentum caused by the change of policy expectations from differences to consistency. What should be paid more attention to is that the main line of investment will really begin to appear.
Better investment portfolio: A shares are added with stable growth value, and H shares are added with technology leaders. The focus of stock selection is on stocks with performance, high performance certainty and marginal improvement of performance certainty. The subdivision of leading companies will be better than tail companies. Recommendations: 1) public investment sector dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, photovoltaic, wind power and Q2 pay attention to the midstream of some cycles such as consumer building materials and steel; 2) Pay attention to the approaching opportunity of consumer goods: pigs, food and beverage and hotels. 3) The direction of stabilizing cash flow: coal, chemical resource products, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks. And H-share technology leader. The passivation of H-share technology leaders and consumption on the impact of the epidemic is an important bottom signal.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the market has a midline value and pays attention to three directions
Looking forward to the future, we reiterate that the market has some characteristics of the bottom in terms of policy, valuation and capital sentiment, and the market already has the value of the middle line; There are still some challenges in the market environment, and more positive fundamental catalysts are needed for further growth. In particular, the month on month improvement of earnings expectations may be more important. Under the background of China’s “steady growth” overweight and overseas growth downturn, we will focus on the post epidemic repair of China’s fundamentals in the future, including real estate and consumer demand.
At present, we are concerned about three directions: 1) the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, stable demand for real estate and related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.); 2) For the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks. The turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : value first, strategy oriented small cap growth stocks
A shares are neither humble nor arrogant, value first, and strategy is more focused on small cap growth stocks. We judge that the market will shift from muddy sand to rich structural opportunities. We suggest that we first focus on value stocks, and then focus on small cap growth stocks that benefit from the improvement of private enterprise credit environment, are limited by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, have non crowded trading structure and oversold in the early stage.
Industry configuration: 1 “Old style” steady growth force (real estate / consumer building materials / household appliances / banks); 2. “Supply and demand gap” inflation benefiting resources / materials (coal / copper / potassium fertilizer); 3. Small cap growth stocks (photovoltaic cell modules / semiconductor equipment) benefiting from the gradual improvement of private credit environment and more attractive odds.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : A shares have gradually entered a new round of upward cycle, and steady growth is the current important main line
In May, the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp, exceeding the expectation; In April, the RRR reduction was implemented, and the excess liquidity accelerated to improve. The year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 35%, at a historically high level; In April, the growth rate of M2 continued to rise by 10.5%, significantly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP. Many signals indicate that asset prices have upward momentum. The abundant liquidity has brought important support to a shares. Although there are many unfavorable factors for the economy, the capital distribution and asset appreciation seem to have begun. A shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle. Steady growth is an important main line at present. The sectors benefiting from the acceleration of new construction and construction and the traditional cyclical products and new energy infrastructure along the main line of the recovery of economic activities after the epidemic can be paid special attention to.
Anxin Securities: A shares still need to wait for a clearer right signal, “steady growth” is still the main position
Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has experienced three waves of decline – rebound: the main line of the rebound is from the old infrastructure – Real Estate – (repair after the epidemic, mainly social clothing and food and drink in mid April) – high boom track stocks from the perspective of this round of oversold rebound of the high boom track, the oversold rebound of the high boom track based on the emotional level is expected to come to an end, and the subsequent rebound needs to pay attention to the improvement of incremental funds
For the market reversal, A-Shares still need to wait for a clearer right signal, which is currently in the low-level balance zone. We have always believed that the turning point of profit expectation at the molecular end of China’s fundamentals is the primary core signal of market reversal. The market has always expected “real moves” and “real moves” on the policy side to effectively reverse the current “good moves” expected by China’s fundamentals.
At present, we suggest to “look forward to the bright future” and look forward to “jumping into the abyss” in the second quarter.
For the current four main lines of “steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation”, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main position (positional warfare, not switching back and forth).
1. Steady growth: in the process of communicating with institutions, we found that the recognition consensus for regional banks Infrastructure chain real estate chain; The obvious excess of real estate (chain) again needs the verification of substantial and continuous recovery of fundamentals, which is controversial in the market at present. We believe that the substantial inflow of northward funds into real estate can be used as an important signal of the second wave of obvious excess;
2. High boom field: from the current high boom track fundamentals and boom trends, we believe that the internal order of boom is: photovoltaic national defense and military industry semiconductor, new energy vehicles wind power;
3. Field of post epidemic repair: in the process of communication with institutions, there are two laws: first, there must be post epidemic repair market in case of epidemic situation; Second, there must be food, drink and social service in the post epidemic repair market;
4. In the field of global inflation: for inflation, it is found that in the communication process of investors, attention began to focus on ppi-cpi transmission, that is, the CPI chain of essential consumer goods. We think this law will be late, but it will not be absent.
Minsheng Securities: the growth rebound is coming to an end, preparing for a new round of market cycle
After nearly a month of rebound, some of the growth sectors are close to history, and the rebound range has exceeded the historical center, but it may be the “reversal illusion” caused by the excessive decline in the early stage over the historical average. It is noteworthy that in this round of rebound, the differentiation and convergence of the fund has obviously not kept up with the convergence of asset prices since this year, and “position covering” constitutes a potential reason.
Last week’s asset price performance seemed “magnificent”. In fact, it was “calm”. The preset path of fundamentals is no different from that before: the growth rebound is coming to an end, and only by choosing a sub industry in which supply and demand are independent of inflation can we make steady progress. The real cycle is coming back. Grasp the certainty of energy, the repair elasticity of metal and the importance of energy transportation. Recommended: oil and gas, aluminum, copper, coal, oil transportation, gold, real estate, chemical fertilizer and banks.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : A shares turned from rebound to reversal, optimistic about “science and Hong Kong stability”
At present, we believe that the market has ushered in the third turning point, and A-Shares have changed from rebound to reversal. It is suggested to be more strategic.
From rebound to inversion: three logic of inversion. We believe that A-Shares began to move from rebound to reversal. First, the dimension of stock debt return ratio and the value of A-share allocation appeared; Second, the bottom of China’s economy began to be clear; Third, the impact of US stocks is passivated. In other words, the two major factors that suppressed the market in the early stage, namely, China’s economic pressure and the disturbance of US stocks, have passed the dark time. The experience of A-share has been fully adjusted, which is more sensitive to A-share. As steady growth continues to exert its power, A-Shares have moved from rebound to reversal, and the recent 5-year LPR has been lowered more than expected to confirm the reversal pattern.
Differentiation in reversal: choose the right market as the main battlefield. For a shares, with the increase of the number of listed companies, the sharp differentiation of structure is the norm. Although we are optimistic about the A-share reversal, it is still a bull market for a few companies. Therefore, optimizing the structure is very important for the main battlefield. In the context of domestic substitution and energy revolution, we are still optimistic about the direction of semiconductors, national defense equipment and new energy. However, according to the experience of each round of bull market replacement, the next batch of bull stocks will be reshuffled. Therefore, for the group of star stocks, although the short-term rebound is good, it is particularly important to eliminate the false and preserve the true with the help of the rebound.
We are optimistic about the stability of science and technology and Hong Kong. The science and technology innovation board began to reverse, the turning point of Hang Seng technology was at the end, and the steady growth is not over. We propose to tap the secondary new shares listed in recent 2-3 years represented by the science and innovation board for the direction of semiconductors, national defense equipment and new energy. This batch of new shares has a distinct sense of the times, fully adjusted share prices and low institutional positions, with great expectations.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : “U” market, need to avoid over optimism
The risk appetite of A-share market has improved, but it still takes time for corporate profits to improve. Since the end of April, with the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, market sentiment has also been significantly boosted. From April 27 to May 20, the rebound rate of power equipment, automobile, national defense and military industry and non-ferrous metals has exceeded 20%, while the growth of banks, real estate and other stable growth related industries lags behind. Since May, leveraged funds have been net buying for three consecutive weeks, and the financing balance has rebounded slightly, indicating that the market risk appetite is continuing to repair. Since May, the daily turnover of the market has fluctuated around 800 billion yuan for most of the time, and the issuance of new funds is still low, indicating that the market is still dominated by stock game. The reversal of market trend needs to verify the improvement of fundamental data and the return of corporate profits. At present, the performance growth rate of A-share enterprises has not yet bottomed out, and the improvement of profitability still needs time.
Investment strategy: U-shaped market to avoid over optimism and over pessimism. In the context of sharp fluctuations in the overseas market, A-Shares have stepped out of the independent market in recent two weeks, mainly due to the market risk appetite boosted under the expectation of Shanghai’s resumption of work and production and steady growth policy. In terms of the current market, under the pattern of capital stock game, the rebound cannot be achieved overnight. At present, the conditions from rebound to reversal are not available. While actively participating in this round of rebound market, it is necessary to avoid excessive optimism and pessimism. The Shanghai composite index is at Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points, which are reasonable fluctuations in the “U” rebound market. From the medium and long-term perspective, A-Shares are in the stage of tamping the bottom range and gradually moving the center upward. In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to two main investment lines: one is related to steady growth, such as “real estate, construction and building materials”; Second, it is related to post epidemic repair, such as “food and beverage, automobile”, etc.
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