Today (May 23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high and went low in the morning. The three major stock indexes fell at the beginning. After repeated shocks, the stock indexes fell rapidly, and then maintained a low shock pattern.
From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stock market reappeared, the outbreak of agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector, monkeypox virus prevention and control, cultural media, dairy and other sectors performed well. In addition, the market of "coal flying color dance and steel splashing" is also on the rise. The industry and concept sectors have more or less ups and downs, and the market profit-making effect is prominent.
It is worth mentioning that in the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector, as of press time, Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co.Ltd(000505) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) and Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) , Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) share prices also soared, hitting the daily limit.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the worst moment of China's economy has passed and all parties are accelerating the introduction of incremental policies to promote economic recovery. Although there is uncertainty in the overseas market, the valuation advantage of the Chinese market is obvious, and the market is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in policy driven areas, such as steady growth, price rise, consumption, science and technology, etc.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that the peak of pig production capacity has passed, but the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the pig price is still below the cost line of the industry. It is expected that the marginal rate of capacity de industrialization may slow down but will continue. At present, the asset liability ratio of breeding enterprises is at an all-time high and faces great capital pressure. We need to focus on the capital situation of enterprises. In the case of strong upward certainty of the pig cycle, we need to pay attention to enterprises with strong growth certainty and low operating risk. Enterprises with cost advantages and rich cash reserves are more likely to cross the bottom cycle. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
Kaiyuan Securities said that the pig cycle was gradually realized, and the breeding and grain landscape continued to rise. In the performance realization stage of the pig cycle, we paid attention to the cost advantage and the rhythm of capacity release. Focus on recommending Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has both cost advantage and capacity growth flexibility; Enterprises with cost advantages and scale advantages Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . Relevant beneficiary objects: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc.
In addition, the agency further pointed out that the supply and demand pattern of wheat is volatile, and global food prices are under upward pressure again. Since March 2022, the continuous high temperature weather in India has led to the withering of wheat crops in the key growth period. On May 13, the General Administration of foreign trade of India issued a notice announcing a ban on wheat export on the grounds that food security was threatened. The promulgation of India's ban has further exacerbated the rising international wheat supply pressure since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war.
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The bottom of the stock cycle can rise sharply. The average market value of breeding stocks and other indicators are at the bottom, and the safety margin of investment is high. We continue to be "optimistic" about pig breeding, and recommend four golden pigs. The capacity removal effect of the broiler industry has gradually appeared for two consecutive years, and the product price is expected to fluctuate upward above the cost line. At present, the profitability of all links of the industrial chain is good. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunities of the broiler sector.
For the planting industry, maintain the "optimistic" rating. India's announcement of a ban on wheat exports will affect the international trade pattern of wheat and be conducive to the high rise of grain prices. In addition, the listing of corn and soybean transgenic seeds is the general trend. With the landing of GM, the market space of seed industry will be expanded and the competition pattern is expected to be reshaped. The head enterprises with early layout R & D are expected to seize more market share by virtue of the first mover advantage. Maintain the "optimistic" rating and focus on the investment opportunities of corn seed industry.
(screenshot from The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities Research Report)
[Theme 2] steel, coal and nonferrous metals
For the coal industry, Cinda Securities said that the coal trade pattern has been reshaped and the war for coal has begun. From a deeper level, the global coal production cycle driven by supply logic is the root of the continuous tension between coal supply and demand in China and even the world. At present, it is still in the early stage of a new round of global energy Inflation Based on the production capacity cycle and boosted by excessive currency. The problem of global coal, oil and gas resource supply shortage may become more serious in the next three to five years or even longer.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that under the condition of insufficient supply and rising demand, how will the coal market interpret the reconstruction of supply and demand caused by superimposed geographical conflicts? In the short term, we believe that coal prices may be driven by three factors: 1) the peak of coal consumption in summer is coming, and the demand may strengthen; 2) The epidemic situation is gradually unsealed and steadily growing, and the demand is expected to recover; 3) The export of upstream raw materials is expected to boost and support demand. In the medium and long term, we believe that the reconstruction of the global energy supply and demand pattern caused by geographical conflicts will not only lead to the high operation of coal prices in the short term, but also raise the global medium and long-term coal use costs, resulting in the upward movement of the medium and long-term coal price center.
In addition to this, the financial indicators of East Asia's nonferrous metals industry have continued to show a good trend. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of global automobile electrification transformation and the continuous high inflation level in the United States, the lithium and gold sub sectors perform more prominently. With the continued prosperity of the industry in the future, the relevant targets may benefit.
In addition, for the iron and steel industry, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that at present, the iron and steel sector is at the bottom of demand, the top of cost and the worst stage of fundamentals with little upward elasticity of supply. Looking forward to the future, with the phased inflection point of the epidemic, the suppressed demand will make up. From the perspective of the real estate production cycle, the bottom of the policy is bringing fundamental changes, which is expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year, while the cost side has a high probability of falling back, The gross profit per ton of the industry will usher in re expansion. It is suggested to pay attention to the sector opportunities under high dividends, undervalued value, low allocation and low expectation.
(screenshot from Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities Research Report)
[Theme 3] cultural media
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that with the introduction of new infrastructure policies, relevant artificial intelligence, 5g and data center construction have become the technical basis to drive the development of cultural industry.
The implementation of the digital strategy of cultural industry and the high-quality development of digital cultural industry are expected to create new Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption scenes, promote new opportunities for traditional industries, stimulate cultural consumption potential, enhance national self-confidence and enhance national cultural soft power.
The agency further suggested that Fubo group, a global leader in online video copyright protection, a digital creative software provider Wondershare Technology Group Co.Ltd(300624) , a Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) , a rich digital collection with many museums, a reading group connected with the IP ecological chain, a leading enterprise in the field of digital technology application in China Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) , cable operators, Internet platform companies involved in many fields Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) cultural performance activity planners, etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that the Internet media industry needs to continue to pay attention to the "two inflection points", namely, the inflection point of regulatory certainty and the inflection point of epidemic situation. At present, the regulatory certainty and visibility are increasingly enhanced, and the establishment of the healthy development trend of platform economy is encouraged. With the gradual recovery of epidemic situation, it is expected to return to the original growth track; At the same time, it has "three main lines", namely: 1) the main line of big space and strong barriers, focusing on structural opportunities under the trend of slowing down of Internet market traffic dividends, and it is suggested to pay attention to the targets with strong endogenous operation and organizational ability and large growth space of the company, and it is suggested to pay attention to meituan-w, Kwai-w, JD group-sw, Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) ;
2) the main line of yuancosmos and going to sea, the frequent occurrence of relevant norms and support policies of yuancosmos, the promotion of the international competitiveness of platform companies is also the direction of policy encouragement, and the global competitiveness of China's short video and mobile games products is prominent. It is suggested to pay attention to Tencent holdings, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) etc;
3) the main line of industrial empowerment and hard technology, and the combination of consumer Internet and industrial Internet are the general trend. Some head companies have been deeply cultivated for many years and made preliminary progress. Hard technology is the long-term encouragement direction of policy. It is suggested to pay attention to Alibaba SW.
In addition, Huachuang Securities pointed out that yuanuniverse is still one of the most noteworthy main lines in the media sector in 2022, focusing on the implementation of virtual human and NFT related concepts and relevant policy guidance. After the regulatory year of 2021, the share price of the Internet sector has significantly corrected. At present, the main companies have basically fallen back to the reasonable valuation range, and the business model of the Internet still has the potential for rapid growth; After the restart of the game version, the mood is expected to pick up, and the leading Internet companies are expected to resume growth in the second half of this year.
(screenshot from Huachuang Securities Research Report)
[Topic 4] prevention and treatment of monkeypox virus
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) mentioned that monkeypox virus and smallpox virus belong to the genus orthopox virus, but the symptoms are lighter than smallpox and the interpersonal transmission is weak (R0 is expected to be between 0.6 ~ 1 or lower). Historically, monkeypox outbreaks mainly occurred in Africa. In the past, individual cases in Europe and the United States had a history of living in Africa or were infected by animals from Africa. The monkeypox epidemic involving more than 100 people in Europe and the United States is different in that except for early cases, there is no history of living in Africa, suggesting that interpersonal transmission may occur locally or in other countries. Preliminary data from Europe show that most cases are MSM At this stage, no adverse changes have been found in the virus itself, and the impact needs to be further observed.
Monkeypox is a self limiting disease. It is not infectious within the incubation period of 5-21 days, and the symptom period generally lasts for 2-3 weeks. At present, there is no specific treatment for monkeypox, but vaccines and drugs for smallpox may still be effective for monkeypox. The CDC of the United States recommends smallpox vaccine for post exposure prevention of monkeypox. At the same time, it is expected to effectively control the epidemic by combining the existing drugs such as cidofovir, brincidofovir, tercovir and vaccinia immunoglobulin.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that recently, monkeypox cases have been confirmed in many countries in Europe, America and Australia, and a total of more than 100 cases have been confirmed. The epidemic is a rare monkeypox epidemic outside Africa, which has been warned by the who or has been spread in the community. The United States and Spain have purchased hundreds of millions of dollars worth of monkeypox vaccine as emergency reserves. At present, there is no specific drug for the treatment of monkeypox, and the only monkeypox vaccine approved by FDA is on the market. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) (the company's products include monkeypox virus nucleic acid assay kit) and Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) (varicella vaccine is the main contributor to the company's revenue at this stage. Varicella zoster virus belongs to herpesvirus family, monkeypox belongs to DNA virus of orthopoxviridae family, and the company's varicella vaccine cannot prevent monkeypox; Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) has four technical platforms, including DNA vaccine technology platform).
(screenshot from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Report)
