On May 23, the three major stock indexes fell in the morning. The Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index fell by about 1% at one time, stopped falling and rebounded in the afternoon, the Shanghai index turned red near the end of the day, and the decline of Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index narrowed significantly; The daily turnover of the two cities was about 860 billion yuan, and the net sales of funds from the North exceeded 5 billion yuan.
As of the closing, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.01% to 314686 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.06% to 1144795 points, and the gem index fell 0.3% to 241012 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 859.7 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 5.744 billion yuan.
On the disk, monkeypox prevention concept stocks soared, the media, agriculture and automobile sectors rose sharply, and the steel, nonferrous metals, medicine, logistics, software, coal, oil, food and beverage sectors all strengthened; Insurance, real estate, power, banking, construction, wine and other sectors weakened; Lithium ore, intellectual property, covid-19 detection, chemical fertilizer, phosphorus concept, etc. are active.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has experienced three waves of decline – rebound: the main line of the rebound is from the old infrastructure – Real Estate – (post epidemic repair, in mid April, mainly social services and food) – high boom track stocks. In terms of this round of oversold rebound of high boom track, the oversold rebound of high boom track based on emotional level is expected to be coming to an end, and the subsequent rebound needs to pay attention to the improvement of incremental funds.
For the market reversal, A-Shares still need to wait for a clearer right signal, which is currently in the low-level balance zone. We have always believed that the turning point of profit expectation at the molecular end of China’s fundamentals is the primary core signal of market reversal. The market has always expected “real moves” and “real moves” on the policy side to effectively reverse the current “good moves” expected by China’s fundamentals. At present, we suggest to “look forward to the bright future” and look forward to “jumping into the abyss” in the second quarter. For the current four main lines of “steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation”, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main position (positional warfare, not switching back and forth).
Minsheng Securities said that after nearly a month’s rebound, some of the growth sectors have been close to history, and the rebound has exceeded the historical center, but it may be the “reversal illusion” caused by the excessive decline in the early stage over the historical average. It is noteworthy that in this round of rebound, the differentiation and convergence of the fund has obviously not kept up with the convergence of asset prices since this year, and “position covering” constitutes a potential reason.
Last week’s asset price performance seemed “magnificent”. In fact, it was “calm”. The preset path of fundamentals is no different from that before: the growth rebound is coming to an end, and only by choosing a sub industry in which supply and demand are independent of inflation can we make steady progress. The real cycle is coming back. Grasp the certainty of energy, the repair elasticity of metal and the importance of energy transportation. Recommended: oil and gas, aluminum, copper, coal, oil transportation, gold, real estate, chemical fertilizer and banks.
