Viewpoint: there are still repeated attempts to find the bottom of the economy, and there is no obvious sign of stabilization at present. The pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. With the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming in the short term, despite the sudden attack of monkeypox virus, the overall rebound sentiment of the market remains, and the game of individual stocks can continue. However, due to the technical pressure of the index and the pressure of domestic and foreign troubles, the market still has the possibility of repeated or even shock decline
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened high and once fell after the opening, showing a continuous dive. However, the market ushered in some changes in the afternoon. Driven by the rise of cyclical stocks, the index rose rapidly and once again turned red in the session. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index are also approaching the red market. Although the whole day was volatile, individual stocks rose more and fell less, continuing the rebound pattern. On the specific disk, the steel sector led the rise, while non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, metal chemical industry, petrochemical and other sectors led the rise.
Last week, when the LPR fell more than expected, the market ushered in a rapid upward trend, which not only effectively stood at the integer level of 3100 points, but also set a new high since this round of oversold rebound. So far, the stock index has recovered the suppression of many short-term averages under the continuous recovery, and began to advance in the direction of bulls. From the perspective of technology and historical market, if the Shanghai index returns to and stands firm at the 60 day moving average, the phased bottom of the index will basically form, otherwise there will be repetition.
At present, the contradiction in the market is still twofold, and the factors that suppress the index are relatively concentrated. On the one hand, the impact of overseas fed contraction. US stocks fell continuously, but A-Shares bucked the trend and strengthened. Obviously, under the trend of inflation and interest rate increase, the decline cycle of US stocks may have just begun; On the other hand, China's economy is under downward pressure. At present, the downward pressure on China's economy is still great, and the recovery of the market is generally related to economic stability. At present, the economy is still in a downward trend. It is still difficult for the index to reverse or judge sharply.
In this case, the index may still repeat, but from the sentiment and confidence of the market recovery, the game of individual stocks can continue. After all, with the intervention of funds and the improvement of long enthusiasm, opportunities still rotate. Based on the current market situation, stable growth is still the main line of the market, and many main lines such as the later stage of the epidemic and global inflation, or the main direction of current funds. Therefore, the current market can still be properly configured, but it is mainly a short-term game. The focus of the game is still the stable growth sector. At the same time, the related targets of resources and materials under the trend of inflation are also the object of key allocation.
On the whole, with the continuous efforts of multiple expected improvements and superimposed policies, the periodic oversold rebound of the index can continue, individual stocks can continue to play games, and the medium-term strategic allocation can also continue. However, it should be noted that after a continuous small rebound, it is not recommended to catch up at will on the whole.
