Today (May 23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index fluctuated repeatedly and fell rapidly again; The market warmed up in the afternoon. With the strength of cyclical stocks and the rapid rise of the index, the Shanghai index turned red again, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index also approached the red market.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose slightly by 0.01% to 314686 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.06% to 1144795 points; The gem index fell 0.30% to 241012.
From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy individual stock market reappeared, the industry and concept sectors rose more and fell less, and the market profit-making effect was prominent. In terms of industries, chemical fertilizer, automobile, shipbuilding, steel, precious metals, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, cultural media, education, medical devices, pesticides and veterinary drugs and other industries led the increase; In terms of lithium, virus prevention and control, NFT and digital education.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on May 23 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on May 23, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.10%. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, the people’s Bank of China realized zero delivery and zero return in the open market.
hot sector
Top 10 gainers in industry sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top 10 gainers in concept sector
Top 10 decline in concept sector
individual shares monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound funds
message surface
1. According to the news client of China Central Television, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference at 3 p.m. on May 23 (Monday). Mi Feng, spokesman of the National Health Commission and deputy director of the publicity department, said at the meeting: to improve the normal monitoring mechanism, provincial councils and cities with a population of more than 10 million people should establish a 15 minute walk nucleic acid “sampling circle” to facilitate people to take nucleic acid samples nearby. Carry out regular nucleic acid detection, increase the detection frequency in key industries and people, and improve the ability of early detection.
2. According to the wechat news on May 23, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the economic operation of the software industry from January to April 2022. The data showed that from January to April, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) business revenue was 2773.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. The total profit of the software industry was 278.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, 2.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Software business exports reached US $16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the export of outsourcing services increased by 20.0% year-on-year; The export of embedded system software decreased by 13.3% year-on-year.
3. According to the information from China Academy of communications and communications, from January to April, China’s industrial investment and manufacturing investment increased by 12.7% and 12.2% respectively year-on-year, 5.9 and 5.4 percentage points higher than the national fixed asset investment respectively; Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 25.9% year-on-year, 13.7 percentage points higher than that in manufacturing.
4. According to the wechat official account of the national development and Reform Commission, the announcement of the national development and Reform Commission (No. 4 in 2022) on clarifying the price bid up behavior of operators in the coal field proposed the specific manifestations of the price bid up behavior of coal (domestic thermal coal, the same below), and made it clear that coal production and operation enterprises should not resell coal to related parties, and then the related parties should significantly increase the price to sell coal.
institutional views
For the current market, Kaiyuan securities mentioned that it has been more than half a month since April 27 that A-Shares have rebounded, market views have gradually diverged, and they began to worry about the remaining time and space of the rebound or coming to an end. We believe that the more confused the market is, the more we should grasp the main contradiction of the A-share market, so as to grasp the trend investment opportunity.
Looking forward to May June, the agency further analyzed that A-Shares ushered in a “mini version”. We expect that on the profit side, on the one hand, the A-share market may continue to benefit from the gradual realization of fundamental data such as the resumption of work and production, the acceleration of life normalization and the recovery of real estate sales; On the other hand, the market may be expected to introduce more policies to promote the cost reduction and profit increase of the manufacturing industry, so as to accelerate the “turning” decline of the two-year compound growth rate of PPI and smooth credit transmission. In addition, it is expected that the remaining liquidity (M1% – short-term financing%) from May to June may change from the “acceleration” improvement in April to the “growth rate” and rebound significantly. At that time, the valuation of A-Shares is also expected to continue to be revised.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that at present, the valuation of A-Shares is at the bottom of history, which will limit the space for sharp decline in the market. The A-share market is still at the bottom of the valuation. With the force of policies, the A-share market will continue to be resilient and the valuation will be repaired upward. For some time to come, we will judge the valuation repair of A-share market by stages: in the short term, the rotation of industry sectors will still be the key; In the medium term, we are optimistic about the index return; In the long run, we should maintain a cautious attitude and take into account the defensive nature of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”. In the future, the general direction will continue to follow the theme of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”, focusing on platform economy, digital economy, infrastructure construction and real estate enterprises far away from the “three red lines”. From the analysis of industry valuation, we recommend the following primary industry sectors with “policy support + low valuation”: information technology, daily consumption, medical care, materials, etc.
Where is the current market? Guosheng Securities believes that, first of all, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares gradually weakened. From the tracking of trading indicators, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the number of new low stocks and the proportion of vulnerable stocks have basically repaired from the extreme range to near the historical center, which also means that the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares is gradually weakening.
Secondly, according to the law of historical experience, the space for this round of oversold rebound is basically fulfilled. According to the experience of oversold since 2010, in the oversold rebound market, the rebound at the bottom is equivalent to the decline in the early stage; In terms of the rise and fall before and after this round of rebound, the rebound space of the all a index has been basically realized since April 26.
After the “super stocks” rebounded, the “super stocks” rebounded in the industry, and the “super stocks” rebounded again in the industry. In the process of oversold rebound, the most obvious feature is that the greater the decline in the earlier stage, the greater the rebound. After the oversold rebound, the style will return to undervalued and blue chip stocks. In the industry, the consumer sector has obvious excess advantages in the next week-2 months.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that the economic data in April weakened significantly, significantly lower than the estimated value. However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of the supply chain and production chain, the market unanimously expected that the second quarter would be the period with the greatest pressure on economic growth in the whole year. In the future, before the substantial improvement of economic data, macro-control tends to be loose, industrial support policies continue to increase, and the probability of profit expectation hitting the bottom is high. The inflation data in April showed that the prices of upstream raw materials were still high and the prices of downstream products rebounded. Many ministries and commissions expressed their determination to maintain the stability of the prices of resource products, and measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply were introduced one after another.
At present, A-Shares have entered the stage of frequent positive policies and pessimistic profit expectations bottoming out. With the repair of low market confidence and the improvement of valuation attractiveness, funds return to the A-share market. In the rebound stage, it is suggested to pay attention to: (1) the decline in the early stage is large, and the industry fundamentals maintain a good track of new energy and hard technology; (2) Steady growth is still the most definite investment main line, capital allocation is strengthened, and the real estate, infrastructure and mandatory consumption sectors deserve attention.
