Continue to be optimistic about the phased rebound of a shares
Since April 27, it has been more than half a month since the rebound of a shares. The market views have gradually diverged, and they began to worry about the remaining time and space of the rebound or coming to an end. We believe that the more confused the market is, the more we should grasp the main contradiction of the A-share market, so as to grasp the trend investment opportunity.
As for the profit side, the "three mountains" that suppress the fundamentals of A-Shares at present, except for the poor credit transmission and no obvious signs of recovery, relevant response policies have been issued for other real estate and epidemic situations, which means that the profit of A-Shares is developing towards good expectations. In fact, the profit expectations of broad-based indexes such as Shanghai index, China Securities 500 and China Securities 1000 have been raised recently.
On the valuation side, on the one hand, with the easing of the epidemic, the demand for short-term funds in the real economy such as the service industry may decline, or promote the "short-term financing" to return to the financial market, forming the residual increment of liquidity in the A-share market. On the other hand, the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation is also expected to ease, the monetary policy will remain "self dominated", and M1 will continue to rise under the broad currency expectation. In fact, the upward pressure of RMB exchange rate one-year forward (NDF) has shown a trend downward trend recently; The central bank also started to cut reserve requirements and interest rates.
Looking forward to May June, A-Shares will usher in the "mini version". We expect that on the profit side, on the one hand, the A-share market may continue to benefit from the gradual realization of fundamental data such as the resumption of work and production, the acceleration of life normalization and the recovery of real estate sales; On the other hand, the market may be expected to introduce more policies to promote the cost reduction and profit increase of the manufacturing industry, so as to accelerate the "turning" decline of the two-year compound growth rate of PPI and smooth credit transmission. In addition, it is expected that the remaining liquidity (M1% - short-term financing%) from May to June may change from the "acceleration" improvement in April to the "growth rate" and rebound significantly. At that time, the valuation of A-Shares is also expected to continue to be revised.
Market growth or market main line style, pay attention to the repair of the supply side after the epidemic
We judge that the main style of the market is "market + growth", especially focusing on "Ning combination". On the one hand, the certainty of profit growth is stronger. On the other hand, short-term valuation has more room for repair and is more sensitive to liquidity reversal. Suggestions on industry allocation: with the easing of the epidemic, compared with the weak recovery of consumption, we pay more attention to those industries with strong demand side and damaged supply side. Specifically, it is suggested to lay out three directions from May to June: first, high liquidity sensitivity and upward prosperity, and pay special attention to the growth industries with large supply side repair elasticity after the epidemic, including new energy vehicles, batteries, energy metals, semiconductors, soda ash and logistics; Second, securities companies whose fundamentals are highly dependent on liquidity; Third, food and Baijiu with high degree of prosperity certainty.
Risk tip: the medium and long-term credit of residents has not been significantly improved, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, and the compound growth rate of PPI in the past two years has remained high.
