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Weekly report of paper and light industry: Weekly express delivery of post cycle industrial chain data of real estate

Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, the sectors of service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , black household appliances, furniture, small household appliances and lighting electricians performed relatively strongly. The CSI 300 index rose 2.23% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , black household appliances, furniture, small household appliances and lighting electricians rose 5.08%, 4.30%, 4.06%, 4.03% and 2.48% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 2.85pct, 2.07pct, 1.83pct, 1.80pct and 0.25pct respectively; White goods and kitchen appliances rose 0.01% and 2.00% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 2.22pct and 0.23pct respectively.

Domestic sales: the year-on-year decline in the retail sales of furniture and household appliances expanded in April. (1) Upstream raw material price: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture fell, the price of copper and stainless steel fell, the price of aluminum rose, and the price of plastic raw materials fell. (2) The year-on-year decline in the area of completed real estate in China: the year-on-year decline in February 2024 narrowed; In April 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in April 2022, the national residential sales area decreased by 42.4% and the completed area decreased by 12.2% year-on-year; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in April 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 41100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 49%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 112000 in March 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%. (3) Retail tracking: the year-on-year decline in retail sales of furniture and household appliances expanded in April. According to the total retail sales of social consumer goods released by the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 14.0% year-on-year in April 2022 (8.8% year-on-year in March), and the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment decreased by 8.1% year-on-year (4.3% year-on-year in March). In terms of sub categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of dishwashers and integrated stoves in April 2022 increased by 27.3% and 8.6% respectively year-on-year, and the online sales of cigarette stoves, kitchen appliances, cleaning appliances and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 0.8%, 19.2%, 20.7% and 24.7% respectively year-on-year.

Export: in April, the sales volume of existing houses in the United States continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth of new construction volume of private houses expanded. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in April, the sales volume of existing homes in the United States decreased by 6% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; The new construction volume of private housing increased by 15% year-on-year, and the growth rate expanded. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in April 2022, the export volume of furniture turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 3%), and the export volume of household appliances continued to have a year-on-year negative growth (- 5%). In terms of sub categories, according to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in April 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of electric fans, microwave ovens, range hoods, induction ovens, electric kettle, electric coffee machine, toaster and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, but the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of washing machines, refrigerators, electric ovens, blenders, bread machines and other categories decreased to varying degrees. The year-on-year growth rate of the export volume of 2022q1 electric kettle was higher than that of 2021q4, and the year-on-year growth rate of the export volume of other categories decreased.

It is suggested to select the real estate post cycle leader that builds a solid foundation in emerging channels and category integration. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized household leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ( Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ( Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , not rated), software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , not rated); Benefiting from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, which have benefited from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances. It is suggested to focus on China’s sweeping the floor Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) \ \ Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) ( Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) , overweight).

Risk tips

The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials

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