In January 2022, the market ushered in the first important turning point, and we shifted from the January system to the “three low” strategy. On May 13, the market ushered in the second turning point, that is, Hang Seng technology ushered in the end of the turning point. We released “gold in the beginning: Hang Seng technology ushered in the end of the turning point”. At present, we believe that the market has ushered in the third turning point, and A-Shares have changed from rebound to reversal. It is suggested to be more strategic.
From rebound to inversion: three logic of inversion
We believe that A-Shares began to move from rebound to reversal. First, the dimension of stock debt return ratio and the value of A-share allocation appeared; Second, the bottom of China’s economy began to be clear; Third, the impact of US stocks is passivated. In other words, the two major factors that suppressed the market in the early stage, namely, China’s economic pressure and the disturbance of US stocks, have passed the dark time.
After full adjustment, A-Shares began to be more sensitive to positive. As steady growth continues to exert its power, A-Shares have moved from rebound to reversal, and the recent 5-year LPR has been lowered more than expected to confirm the reversal pattern.
Differentiation in reversal: choosing the right market as the main battlefield
For a shares, with the increase of the number of listed companies, the sharp differentiation of structure is the norm. Although we are optimistic about the A-share reversal, it is still a bull market for a few companies. Therefore, optimizing the structure is very important for the main battlefield.
In the context of domestic substitution and energy revolution, we are still optimistic about the direction of semiconductors, national defense equipment and new energy. However, according to the experience of each round of bull market replacement, the next batch of bull stocks will be reshuffled. Therefore, for the group of star stocks, although the short-term rebound is good, it is particularly important to eliminate the false and preserve the true with the help of the rebound.
We propose to tap the secondary new shares listed in recent 2-3 years represented by the science and innovation board for the direction of semiconductors, national defense equipment and new energy. This batch of new shares has a distinct sense of the times, fully adjusted share prices and low institutional positions, with great expectations.
Three key clues: strategic emphasis on “science and port stability”
We are optimistic about the “stability of science and Hong Kong”, the science and Innovation Board began to reverse, the turning point of Hang Seng technology was at the end, and the steady growth has not been completed to be continued.
The science and Innovation Board began to reverse: “no industry, no bull market”. The science and innovation board has been launched since July 19. The distinctive sense of the times of industrial distribution is the underlying logic of the bull market of the science and innovation board, and the attribute of secondary new shares has strengthened its dark horse characteristics. Reflected in the data, as of May 19, the pe-ttm of Kechuang board under the overall method (excluding negative values) was 34 times; In terms of profit dimension, combined with wind’s consistent profit forecast, the growth rate in 22 and 23 years is 64% and 34% respectively; In terms of fund position, 2022q1 science and technology innovation board accounts for only 5.3% of active equity funds under the caliber of heavy position stocks.
Specific to industrial clues, combined with the industry: (1) electronics, industrial prosperity, structural evolution, focusing on bottom localization + electric vehicle + VR innovation; (2) The downstream demand for electrical equipment, new energy and new energy power generation continues to exceed expectations, and new energy vehicles are expected to usher in a profit inflection point; (3) Machinery, lithium battery / photovoltaic / wind power equipment have good growth, and the performance of industrial gas detection and inspection is highly deterministic; (4) National defense, national defense endogenous extension dual drive, the current valuation and performance matching history is the best.
The turning bottom of Hang Seng Technology: the bottom of valuation, policy and profit of Hang Seng technology resonate, usher in the turning bottom and grasp the good opportunity of strategic layout.
Steady growth to be continued: at present, it is still in the window of steady growth, and the steady growth sector is to be continued. It pays attention to banking, real estate, construction, travel chain and other fields.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations; Global inflation exceeded expectations; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations.
