Core conclusion: from 2019 to 2021, the stock market has had more incremental capital inflows for three consecutive years. Since the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of the stock market, the incremental capital has decreased significantly. In terms of marginal change, it is much worse than that in the past three years. However, if we consider the amount of stock funds, it is still very large, which is completely different from 2018. Historically, bull market highs generally correspond to the highs of almost all types of funds. The highest issuance of public funds is completely consistent with the high point of the index. However, the peak of equity fund issuance this time is Q1 in 2021, and the index quickly enters the bear market in early 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the main selling forces have been absolute income funds, leveraged funds and foreign capital, while insurance funds have entered against the market. The different behaviors of different types of funds lead to the more complex capital structure of the stock market this time. According to the experience of US stocks, a more complex capital structure is conducive to the phased inflow of different funds and prolong the bull market. At the same time, due to the increase of leverage funds and absolute return funds, the bear market will be faster and shorter. In the short term, there is a bottom area similar to Q4 in 2018, and there may still be local tail risk after the rebound. Strategically, 2022 may be a V-shaped shock, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019.
(1) the overall capital status is similar to that in the second half of 2015, with a large stock of funds. From 2019 to 2021, the stock market has had more incremental capital inflows for three consecutive years. Since the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of the stock market, the incremental capital has decreased significantly. In terms of marginal change, it is much worse than that in the past three years. The amount of capital in 2018 is quite different. From the second half of 2015 to 2018, the stock market funds decreased for three consecutive years, so by 2018, the amount of stock funds was very small. Although the first half of 2022 is a bear market and a lot of funds leave the market, the amount of funds in stock is still large. A similar situation can be compared with q4-2016 in 2015. Due to the large amount of stock funds, although the index adjustment is large, there are still local hot spots, which are very active.
(2) compared with the bear market in history, the decline of fund position is smaller. Compared with the previous bear market, the position adjustment of public funds this time is smaller, and the position of Q1 partial stock hybrid funds decreased by an average of 2 percentage points. Q3’s position also fell sharply in 2015. We believe that this special situation may be because the high point of the new fund issuance is out of sync with the high point of the index. Generally speaking, due to the problems of impulse and customer recognition, the redemption pressure will be greater after the new fund enters the redeemable period. The high point of the new development fund is not synchronized with the high point of the index, resulting in less pressure on the redemption of stock funds and less pressure on forced position reduction.
(3) more complex investor structure is conducive to the market becoming short and long. Since the beginning of the year, the main selling forces with drastic market adjustment may be absolute income funds, leveraged funds and foreign capital. During this period, insurance funds flowed in against the market. The different behaviors of different types of funds have led to a more complex capital structure in the stock market this time. According to the experience of US stocks, a more complex capital structure is conducive to the phased inflow of different funds, but is more conducive to prolonging the bull market. Due to the increase of leveraged funds and absolute return funds, the bear market will be faster and shorter.
Risk factors: the real estate market fell more than expected, and US stocks fluctuated violently.
