Zhou viewpoint
This week (5.16 - 5.22), A-Shares staged an independent market against the background of the sharp decline of US stocks. The Shanghai stock index closed up + 2.02%, while the gem index and Kechuang 50 rose as high as + 2.51% and + 3.42% respectively. Most of the growth of the real estate industry is at the end of the growth chain, and the growth of the real estate industry is inclined to the end of the growth chain.
Three reasons for the recent independent market of a shares: 1. The rise and fall of US bond yield eased the repression of a shares; 2. China's epidemic situation has improved, the steady growth policy has continued to work, and positive signals have boosted market sentiment; 3. Hot topic catalysis, track stocks have made money, driving the market sentiment to pick up.
The margin of internal stagnation and external inflation has improved, and the independent market of A-Shares is still expected: 1. The external supply chain has been repaired, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease, the price of bulk commodities has fallen, the inflation has peaked periodically, the fear of economic recession has intensified, the market has changed from trading inflation to trading recession, and the decline of US debt has weakened the suppression of a shares; 2. The local epidemic has been gradually brought under control, and the combination of steady growth has concentrated its efforts. The five-year LPR has cut interest rates more than expected, releasing a heavy signal of promoting domestic demand, broadening credit and steady growth, and the economic bottom can be repaired.
Steady growth remains the main line of allocation, focusing on "one old, one new and one high". ① "Old" refers to traditional kinetic energy (real estate and infrastructure), stable real estate (real estate, banks, building materials and household appliances) and expansion of infrastructure (building decoration and construction machinery); ② "New" means new infrastructure (photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment and power grid equipment); ③ "High" means high-end manufacturing (automobile, electronics, "specialized and special new").
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
