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How big is the impact of industrial transfer to Vietnam on China—— “Big country game series” Chapter 20
Release date: May 18, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong; Contact: Yang Kang
Since the beginning of this year, due to the periodic disturbance of the epidemic in China’s supply chain and the acceleration of ASEAN’s resumption of work and production, Southeast Asian countries represented by Vietnam have formed an obvious substitution for China’s exports in the fields of clothing and furniture. From the import data of the United States, from 2021q4 to 2022q1, about 5% of China’s textile orders, 7% of furniture orders and 2% of electromechanical orders have been transferred to ASEAN countries represented by Vietnam. In the short term, under the background of order transfer, China’s export growth in the second and third quarters may fall by 4 and 2 percentage points respectively.
