1. The restoration of various economic sectors after the epidemic in 2020 follows the process of first infrastructure and real estate, then export and manufacturing, and finally low-level stabilization of consumption and services. The force of counter cyclical regulation such as double width of fiscal and monetary policies is the key to the V-shaped reversal of Q2 infrastructure and real estate driven economy in 2020. The amplification of overseas supply and demand gap and the advantages of China’s resumption of work and production determine that the export manufacturing chain has become the main engine of economic recovery from Q3 relay in 2020. However, due to the dual inhibition of the epidemic on consumption scenarios and residents’ income expectations, the recovery of consumption and service industry is relatively slow after the epidemic.
2. Under the background of limited space for monetary policy, fiscal policy is expected to become the main focus of economic recovery after the current round of epidemic, but it still needs to rely on the cooperation of incremental tools such as the issuance of additional special treasury bonds. On the one hand, by accelerating the issuance and landing of special bonds, we can better stimulate effective investment. On the other hand, we should also rely on the financial side to stimulate consumption. Tax reduction and fee reduction, issuing consumption vouchers and encouraging the probability of new energy vehicles and household appliances going to the countryside are still the key measures to expand domestic demand. The recent overweight of the real estate stabilization policy is also an important support for the stabilization of the economy, and substantial improvement in the real estate market can be expected in the future.
3. Looking forward to the repair intensity of various economic sectors after the epidemic, under the consistent expectation of stable growth, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to return to the previous high, so as to support the economy. The worst stage of real estate, consumption and service industry will gradually pass, but the slope and height of recovery depend on the support of policies. The probability of subsequent real estate will reverse the dilemma. However, the consumption and service industry is subject to the repeated epidemic, and a substantial improvement is still unrealistic, but the marginal improvement can be expected under the stimulation of policies. The downward external demand will restrain the high boom of the export manufacturing chain in the past two years. The direction of the decline in the growth rate of the two is determined, but it is still expected to remain resilient.
4. With the gradual repair of pessimistic economic expectations, the structural opportunities of the market will further appear. Although the reversal of pessimistic expectations is not achieved overnight, the strengthening of policies provides a good start, the improvement of high-frequency economic data will be gradually verified, and the slope of economic recovery determines whether the follow-up market can continue its oversold rebound and rise up. The main line of A-share trading is expected to gradually shift from the direction of steady growth centered on expanding investment to the direction of resumption of work and production centered on stimulating consumption.
5. In terms of industry configuration, consumption is expected to become the most profitable style in the next stage, focusing on three sub areas: first, adjust the food and beverage, catering tourism, hotel and other industries that have fully benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation; Second, optional consumption sectors such as new energy vehicles and household appliances supported and stimulated by policies; Third, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery benefiting from the rise in product prices and inflation, as well as medicine and biology with low valuation.
