I. time and space calculation of rebound
① maintain a prudent view throughout the year, and confirm the policy bottom and profit bottom in case of reversal. The policy bottom reshapes the valuation system, reduces uncertainty, tracks China's investment confidence (entrepreneur Symposium) and overseas geopolitics (Summit), and tracks the improvement of employment after returning to work at the bottom of profit, driving the recovery of real demand.
② refer to the rebound of the four rounds of bear market: work hard, decline again, and run out of three. If 2863 points are determined to be the largest backdraft in the first round, refer to the average value of 45% of the largest backdraft in the bear market, the height of Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 3243 points, and the remaining increase is 3%. If it is determined as the second round of anti pumping, the height is about 3123 points, which is the same as the current market position.
③ referring to the balance of long and short forces, the volume weighted price of decline and rebound is the same, the height of Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 3397, and the remaining increase is 8%.
④ since 1929, the average decline of standard & Poor's stock market has reached 3903 / 500 points in 2023, or the average decline of standard & Poor's stock market has reached 3903 / 500 points in 2023.
II. Three new problems of "internal worries" and "external aggression"
① from May to June, there will be a window period between performance and demand, and the direction of resumption of work and production and stable growth? Optimistic. Main line of market game: resumption of work and production due to the epidemic, and landing of steady growth. The victory of the greater Shanghai defense war means that the first half of the pricing is over, and the steady growth policy will be intensively implemented, which is expected to improve risk appetite.
② desensitization of asset prices to Russia and Ukraine? The foundation of the dollar strengthened and A-Shares passed the worst time. The possible reasons for desensitization are the unity of strong US and weak Europe under geopolitics and the strengthening of the foundation of the US dollar. A shares have passed the worst moment, and more geopolitical factors should be invested in the Asia Pacific.
③ US stocks bear, can A-Shares market independently? I'm afraid it won't last. The main reason for the reversal is the dislocation of the Sino US economic cycle. If the US recession expectation promotes the continuous adjustment of US stocks, it does not rule out that the United States will shift the focus of China's recession to overseas geopolitics.
III. allocation and position
① institutional position: growth oversold and rebounded, and the net value of public offering has recovered by 9%. More market opportunities depend on the transmission from wide currency to wide credit, and the real economy and performance have improved.
② infrastructure chain under the national security of the first echelon, industries: construction, building materials, local banks, fine molecular areas, agricultural security, oil and gas pipeline network, urban pipeline network, digital infrastructure, etc.
③ the second echelon focuses on the growth and manufacturing under the resumption of work, including communication services, power equipment, electronics, etc.
Risk warning: global geopolitical conflict intensifies; The epidemic spread in China and the macroeconomic growth was lower than expected; Historical experience does not represent the future; The calculation in this paper is only for historical reference and does not represent future prediction.
