China’s education index rose or fell by + 5.47% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses were: New Oriental online (+ 18.56%), tal (+ 16.29%), Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) (+ 14.97%), New Oriental (+ 12.64%), China Oriental Education (+ 11.21%), Guangzheng Education (- 8.33%) and China Kepei (- 7.89%).
Viewpoint: 1) the employment rate is under pressure due to the epidemic and other factors. The state has issued documents to encourage the development of vocational education for many times. This week, some stocks ushered in a thematic market. 2) In terms of k12 education, the policy is still strict on the supervision of after-school tutoring institutions, and it is suggested to maintain a cautious attitude. 3) It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. We believe that the company’s resources are expected to tilt to the university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting, and the live broadcasting data is gradually improving. It is worth paying attention to. The bottom logic is that the brand, human and material resources of New Oriental and Yu Minhong are still strong.
Education industry
This week, the hotel catering and leisure (Changjiang) / Consumer Service HK (CITIC) index rose or fell by + 1.40% / + 2.31%. Stocks with large gains and losses were: Gree Real Estate Co.Ltd(600185) (+ 14.63%), Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) (+ 14.52%), yum China-s (+ 13.69%), Dalian Shengya (+ 13.49%), Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) (+ 12.14%) and St Caesar (- 7.89%). Viewpoint: 1) Shanghai will resume business and market in stages, and the local wine, tourism and catering is expected to usher in marginal improvement. It is recommended to choose local supermarkets and store management. 2) The overall epidemic prevention and control is still under high pressure, and the actual operation improvement still needs policy stimulation. 3) In the medium and long term, with the increase of vaccination rate and the listing of covid-19 specific drugs, and the gradual relaxation of entry-exit restrictions in some overseas countries and regions, the industry is expected to recover.
Wine travel catering
This week, the beauty care (Shenwan) index increased or decreased by + 3.33% in total, and the stocks with larger increases were: Lonkey Industrial Co.Ltd.Guangzhou(000523) (+ 11.83%), Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) (+ 9.07%), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (+ 8.55%); Stocks with large decline include Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (- 3.84%), Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (- 3.83%), Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co.Ltd(001206) (- 1.94%). Viewpoint: 1) repeated epidemics and strengthened sealing and control measures in many places in China have a negative impact on cosmetics supply chain, logistics and terminal consumption in the short term. With the effective control of the epidemic, cosmetics consumption is expected to pick up. 2) Some brands with strong online operation ability and strong product strength show strong resilience and maintain rapid growth. It is recommended to pay active attention to them. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the marginal improvement opportunities of undervalued targets.
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , with a cumulative increase or decrease of + 4.96% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious. Big cities such as Shanghai are the key areas of the company’s business. In addition, the epidemic will also have a certain impact on the short-term advertising budget of advertisers; 2) Focus’s business model and demand trend are still strong. We firmly believe that the future of consumer brands is the future of focus and continue to firmly recommend. The PE valuation in 2022 is less than 20 times and maintain “strong recommendation”.
The same hunting employment increased or decreased by – 1.45% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the long-term growth rate of revenue is 20% +, 40% + for four consecutive quarters, and CAGR is 30% in the next three years; 2) Robust hrsaas model, 2b renewal rate of 80% +, Ka renewal rate of 90% +; 3) At present, the commercialization rate is only about 7%. In 2021, there will be 1 million registered enterprises and 70000 paying enterprises; 4) In 2021, the ARPU of b-end was 31800 yuan, and the CAGR (20172021) was 12.3%, which continued to grow. “Highly recommended”.
New Oriental online, up or down + 18.56% this week. Viewpoint: 1) negative clearing of policy & business operation; 2) University adult business is expected to rebound strongly; 3) Both institutional business and live delivery are new businesses from 0 to 1; 4) New Oriental’s human and material resources are still strong, the group’s book cash exceeds 30 billion, and the core talent team led by Yu Minhong is still growing. New Oriental online, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, has undertaken many strategic transformation directions of the group. It is suggested to actively focus on transformation opportunities.
Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) , up or down – 0.65% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the probiotic industry is in a period of rapid development, and its application field has expanded from dairy products to many markets such as medical care, drugs and cosmetics; 2) More than 80% of China’s Probiotic raw materials, bacterial powder or strains depend on import; 3) Domestic probiotic raw materials are starting, Ketuo’s position as a domestic leader is becoming increasingly prominent, and its downstream b-end customers have just begun to produce large quantities. In 2022, the company’s Probiotic business is expected to account for 50%, and the growth rate of probiotic business is expected to remain high. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Haidilao rose or fell by + 4.66% this week. Viewpoint: 1) repeated short-term epidemic situation and fluctuation of business data; 2) The adjustment of the company’s internal organization such as closing stores is basically in place, and the enterprise management and operation are good; 3) Haidilao is still the best catering chain brand in China and one of the first choices for ordinary residents. In the medium and long term, its brand, single store and management belong to the “benchmark” in China’s catering industry. The stock price is depressed due to the epidemic and other factors, and the safety margin of valuation is sufficient. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Risk tips: 1) policy changes; 2) Repeated outbreaks; 3) Impact of emergencies; 4) The promotion of new products is not as expected.
