Recent growth style performance is significantly better than value style
Since the beginning of the year, the growth sector has performed poorly, but it has rebounded significantly in the near future. Since the beginning of the year, the overall market has tended to value style, while the growth sector has continued to perform poorly. However, since April 27, the growth sector has rebounded significantly, and the stock price performance is significantly better than that of other sectors. On the industry side, most of the industries with the highest recent growth are also growth sectors. In addition, compared with the value style, northbound funds are also more favored for the growth sector.
Under the resonance of multiple factors, the growth beta attribute appears
On the profit side, the resumption of work and production under the background of the improvement of the epidemic is more favorable for the growth sector. With the repeated epidemic in China, the production of growing industries such as automobile, non-ferrous metals, power equipment and electronics has been significantly affected. Under the recent resumption of work and production, industries greatly affected by the epidemic will also benefit the most. On the valuation side, the periodic decline of US bond interest rate is more conducive to the repair of the valuation of the growth sector.
Under the resonance of multiple factors, the high beta attribute of the growth sector appears. From the beginning of the year to April 26, the decline of the growth sector was the most obvious. However, with the rebound of the market since then, the rebound of the growth style is also the strongest among all sectors.
Beta market is also a significant feature of the market since this year. Since the beginning of the year, the market can be divided into three stages. In the process of market decline and rebound in each stage, the embodiment of beta market is still obvious. For industries with large decline in the early decline process, the rebound is also more obvious. Especially in the two stages since late February, the industries with the largest decline in the decline also generally performed better in the subsequent rebound.
In the medium term, performance is the core of influencing growth and value style switching
Looking forward to the future, can growth have sustained strong performance? Through the study of various factors, we find that relative performance is the core factor determining the switching between value and growth style. Historically, there is a clear consistency between the relative trend of share price and the change direction of relative growth rate of performance in the growth and value sector, especially in the annual dimension. In the past 10 years, there has been only a significant deviation in 2014.
In addition, the value sector usually performs better when the market falls, with obvious defensive attributes. Since 2010, when the wind all a index has fallen significantly every time, the share price performance of the value sector is often better than that of the growth sector, and the defensive attribute is very obvious. Future relative performance may still be the core factor determining the relative performance of value and growth. Under the downward pressure of earnings this year, the fundamentals of the growth sector will still face some pressure.
There may be trading opportunities for short-term growth, and we will continue to stick to the main line of value in the medium and long term
The market is still facing the verification of economic and profit expectations, but the increase of positive factors is expected to support the market. In the short term, the market is still facing the pressure of economy and performance, and the market may still be under pressure. However, positive factors such as the mitigation of the epidemic, the force of policies and the easing of China US relations may also support the market.
If the market rebounds, the growth sector with high beta still has trading opportunities. Considering the high beta attribute of the growth sector since this year, investors should actively grasp the investment opportunities of the growth sector in the process of market rebound.
From the perspective of the year, we are still more optimistic about the predominance of value style in 2022. On the whole, we are more optimistic about the stock price performance of value style this year. According to the above analysis, the change of poor profit growth rate will still be the core influencing factor of growth / value style switching this year. Considering that the change of poor profit growth rate in 2022 will be more conducive to the value sector, the stock price performance of the value sector will also be relatively dominant.
In the allocation direction, it is suggested to focus on three main lines: consumption, steady growth and Hong Kong stock Hang Seng technology index.
Risk analysis: 1. The level of economic growth is significantly lower than expected; 2. The covid-19 epidemic worsened more than expected.
