The central bank released the quoted interest rate of the loan market in May. The LPR over 5 years was 4.45%, 15 BP lower than the previous value, with obvious signal significance:
1) this LPR adjustment is only aimed at the LPR interest rate with a term of more than 5 years, and the reduction range is large. In this time length of loans, residents’ housing loans account for the vast majority, and the policy intention to stimulate real estate is obvious;
2) this is similar to the purpose of the policy of lowering the lower limit of the first house loan interest rate issued on May 15, that is, it is intended to stimulate the purchase demand of residents through the decline of housing loan interest rate.
However, for the real estate industry in the downward cycle, the boosting effect of the policy remains to be observed:
1) whether real estate sales can rise depends largely on Residents’ expectations of future house prices. After all, if house prices are expected to fall, the falling part is difficult to compensate through the decline of loan interest rate; At present, residents’ expectations of house prices are declining;
2) only when the real estate industry is in the seller’s market, the real estate cycle and monetary cycle are closely related. After all, monetary policy is related to the availability of mortgage loans; However, interest rates and real estate sales have fallen for 16 months, which means that the effectiveness of monetary easing in stimulating real estate is weakening;
3) the reduction of LPR may have a weak impact on macro-economy and asset allocation.
In terms of asset allocation, we maintain the previous view and suggest paying attention to the opportunities of long dollar, pig and short gold, as well as the clue of infrastructure industry chain:
\u3000\u30001. equity market
1) although A-Shares rose sharply this week and market sentiment improved significantly, we believe that there is limited room for A-Shares to continue to rise in the current macro environment;
2) the reversal of the market cannot deviate from the economic fundamentals. Although the risk factors outside China have been mitigated since May, multiple internal and external pressures still exist, and the uncertainty of epidemic and other events is still high;
3) structurally, we are optimistic about the main line of steady growth (new and old infrastructure) and the main line of resumption of work and production (tourism, airport, food and beverage). The performance of the growth sector depends more on the slope of economic repair.
\u3000\u30002. Bond market
1) maintain the view of short-term yield volatility and moderate bear in the second half of the year;
2) weak economic fundamentals require monetary policy to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. At present, the liquidity of the inter-bank system is almost rampant. The pain point of economic fundamentals is not monetary policy. The core contradiction restricting economic repair is the industrial control policy and the recurrence of the epidemic;
3) long and short factors coexist in the short-term bond market, and there is a high possibility of shock; In the medium term, the economic growth in the first half of this year has put great pressure on the realization of the annual GDP target. The introduction of new fiscal measures and the further liberalization of industrial policies are expected, and the economy is expected to rebound to the bottom.
\u3000\u30003. commodity
1) commodities rebounded as a whole this week, and the outlook remained neutral; There are still two clues to the fundamental contradiction: first, there are still external supply shocks and concerns about weak demand under the tightening of global currency; second, the current weak economic fundamentals and the expectation of stable growth policy continue to increase;
2) in terms of breakdown, the commodity trend opportunities are limited at this stage, but the structural opportunities still exist: the inflation transaction in the precious metal sector is coming to an end, and pay attention to the downward space; Energy benefits from the continuous recovery of overseas consumption after the epidemic and the advent of seasonal peak travel. There is still support below when the supply side problem is still sawing; Compared with ferrous metals, nonferrous metals are more widely used in power, transportation, automobile lightweight and so on, and the performance is expected to be better than that of ferrous metals; The capital operation trace of grain and oil market is obvious, and the upper space is limited; The strong game sentiment in the live pig spot trading market led to a large range of price fluctuations, but the rhythm of capacity removal was basically in line with expectations and maintained the upward view in the future market.
Risk tip: monetary policy exceeded expectations and economic recovery exceeded expectations.
