Core view: We selected 11 monthly indicators in terms of freight transportation, storage inventory and industrial production to compare the impact on the supply chain in April this year and February 2020. Logically, the supply chain shock roughly follows the transmission chain from “Freight – warehousing – production”. In April this year, compared with February 2020, the decline in all links was the largest, less than half of that in 2020. Among them, the decline in freight link was the largest, followed by storage inventory, and the decline in production link was the smallest. Inventory played a “cushion” role in production.
Supply chain recovery: (1) freight logistics continued to improve after mid April. In April, the vehicle freight logistics index decreased by 26% compared with the same period last year, and the decline narrowed to 18.5% from May 11 to 18. (2) Based on the experience of Jilin, the recovery of freight logistics in Shanghai is estimated. It took about a month for Jilin Province to recover 70% of the freight logistics from the social clearance to the recovery of 70% of last year. According to this, it is estimated that the freight logistics in Shanghai can recover to 70% of the same period last year in the middle of June. (3) In the coming month, the gradual end of the epidemic in Beijing and Shanghai will drive the significant improvement of national road freight transportation, and the recovery speed of the supply chain is expected to accelerate.
Risk warning: ensure that the relevant policies of the supply chain are not as expected; The strength of steady growth policy is less than expected; The epidemic situation has changed greatly.
