The peak of the epidemic in April had a significant impact on both ends of economic supply and demand. On the one hand, production contracted and the unemployment rate rose further; On the other hand, the contraction of consumption has intensified and the decline of real estate investment has accelerated. However, supported by the steady growth policy, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a certain resilience. The added value of industries above designated size was – 2.9% year-on-year in the same month. The total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by – 11.1% year-on-year. The cumulative investment in urban fixed assets was 6.8% year-on-year and 1.8% year-on-year in the current month; Among them, the cumulative real estate investment was – 2.7% year-on-year and – 10.1% year-on-year in the current month; The total investment in full caliber infrastructure construction was 8.3% year-on-year and 4.3% year-on-year in the current month; The cumulative investment in manufacturing industry was 12.2% year-on-year, and 6.4% year-on-year in the same month.
I. supply: the production momentum is weakening and the employment pressure is rising
Under the impact of the epidemic, the added value of industries above Designated Size in April was – 2.9% year-on-year, 7.9 PCT higher than that of the previous month and the next month, which was the first negative growth since April 2020, and the production kinetic energy of upstream, middle and downstream enterprises weakened comprehensively. Compared with the previous month, the growth rate of the upstream mining industry decreased by 2.7pct to 9.5%, the growth rate of the midstream manufacturing industry decreased significantly by 9.0pct to – 4.6%, and the growth rate of the downstream electric heating, fuel and water production and supply industry decreased by 3.1pct to 1.5%.
By industry, most industries have negative growth in industrial added value, and labor-intensive industries and industries with long value chain have been the hardest hit. Affected by the epidemic situation in Jilin and Shanghai, the growth rate of automobile manufacturing industry decreased significantly by 30.8pct to – 31.8%; The growth rate of general equipment and special equipment manufacturing industry decreased significantly by more than 10 PCT; After becoming positive in March, the growth rate of the textile industry fell sharply by 7.0pct to – 6.3%. The growth rate of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing fell, but still showed some resilience. Relevant industries such as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery manufacturing still maintained positive growth, while pharmaceutical manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing fell to a negative growth range.
From January to April, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down 2.5pct from the first quarter. Among them, the growth rate of upstream mining industry was 10.4%, maintaining high growth; The growth rate of manufacturing industry in the middle reaches decreased by 3.0pct to 3.2%, of which the growth rate of high-tech manufacturing industry was 11.5%; The growth rate of downstream electric heating water production and supply industry decreased by 1.1pct to 5.0%.
In April, the service industry production index further deteriorated, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2pct to – 6.1% compared with March, with negative growth for two consecutive months. Railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering and other contact service industries were significantly frustrated. From January to April, the year-on-year growth rate of the service industry production index continued to decline by 2.2pct to 0.3%, significantly lower than the level in the same period before the epidemic and significantly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter of last year.
In April, the employment pressure further increased, and the national urban survey unemployment rate rose 0.3pct to 6.1%. Among them, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 increased by 2.2pct to 18.2%, exceeding the highest level of 16.8% after the outbreak of the epidemic (July August 2020).
II. Fixed asset investment: the momentum slows down
From January to April, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 6.8% year-on-year, 2.5pct slower than that from January to March; In April, the year-on-year growth was 1.8%, 4.8pct higher than that of the previous month and the next month; After the rose adjustment in April, it decreased by 0.82% month on month. Among them, real estate investment fell into contraction; The marginal growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down, but it still formed main support for the economy, driving the cumulative growth of total investment by 2.9pct and 1.4pct respectively.
