Key points
Core view: since the housing market-oriented reform, the real estate industry has become the core industrial chain that affects and drives economic growth after nearly 30 years of vigorous development. According to the input-output relationship of the input-output table in 2020, from 2016 to 2020, the average annual pull of the generalized real estate sector accounted for about 2.5% of GDP 9% of value-added output, driving the average annual growth rate of constant price GDP by 1.2 percentage points, creating relevant credit accounting for 39.1% of the credit balance, driving the average annual growth rate of credit by 6.7 percentage points, driving about 11.4% of Urban Non private employment.
Considering that the real estate industry chain still plays an important role in the economic structure, it is particularly important to “focus on stability and gradual optimization” for the adjustment of the real estate industry in the process of economic structure transformation. Since August 2020, the regulation on the financing side of the real estate field has significantly weakened some potential risks. It is expected that the follow-up policy regulation in the real estate field will still adhere to the main tone of “no speculation in housing”, but will pay more attention to supporting the rigid and improving housing demand. The real estate industry is expected to usher in a wider “urban policy” relaxation at both ends of supply and demand.
Economy: the broad real estate sector can drive the economic growth of about 1.2pct
According to the 2020 national input-output table, from 2016 to 2020, the added value directly created by the broad real estate sector averaged about 7.9 trillion yuan, driving the growth rate of constant price GDP by about 0.5 percentage points; Through the ripple effect on the upstream and downstream industries of the industrial chain, the indirectly created added value is about 11.2 trillion yuan per year, driving the constant price GDP growth rate by about 0.7 percentage points per year. Therefore, the average annual added value created by the broad real estate sector is about 19.1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 22.9% of the constant price GDP, driving the average annual growth rate of constant price GDP by about 1.2 percentage points, and the comprehensive contribution rate to the growth rate of constant price GDP is 20.9%.
Credit: the broad real estate sector can drive the credit growth rate of about 6.7pct
At the end of 2021, the balance of real estate loans accounted for about 27.1% of the credit balance. From 2016 to 2020, the growth rate of real estate loans was 5.9 percentage points higher than that of China’s credit. The average annual new loans of the real estate sector accounted for about 38.2% of the average annual new loans. From the perspective of input-output table, from 2016 to 2020, the loan balance directly and indirectly driven by the broad real estate sector accounted for about 39.1% of the credit balance, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percentage points, and an average annual contribution rate to the credit growth rate of about 51.8%.
Employment: the real estate sector in a broad sense has strong absorption elasticity for employment
The employment of urban non-private units directly driven by the broad real estate sector is about 17.7 million, and the employment indirectly driven is about 1.76 million, accounting for about 19.45 million, accounting for about 11.4% of the employment of urban non-private units. In addition, from 2011 to 2020, the new employment driven by the broad real estate sector accounted for about 20.8% of the new employment of urban non-private units in that year.
Ripple: the real estate sector in a broad sense is in a downturn, which is a drag of 1.4pct on GDP growth in the first quarter
If we take the actual compound growth rate of the generalized real estate sector from 2016 to 2019 as the potential growth level of the generalized real estate sector, we can roughly calculate the potential added value of the generalized real estate sector in the first quarter of 2022 based on the added value of the generalized real estate sector in the first quarter of 2021. Then use the potential added value minus the actual added value as the gap of the generalized real estate sector in the first quarter of 2022, and then calculate the gap of GDP in the first quarter of 2022 through the pull coefficient calculated by the national input-output table in 2020. The ratio of GDP gap to real GDP in the first quarter of 2021 is the loss of real GDP caused by the contraction of the broad real estate sector.
Risk tip: the annual change of economic structure is large, the GDP deflator between industries is quite different, and the strong transmission chain amplifies the measurement error.
