Since March, more and more second tier cities have relaxed part of the “four restrictions” policy. Since March, the real estate data has been weakened, but the real estate sales in cities have continued to be affected by the epidemic. Therefore, to observe whether real estate relaxation is useful, we should also distinguish the impact of epidemic closure and control.
From the sample observation, no matter whether there is the impact of epidemic closure and control, relaxing the “four limits” probability can play some role in the rise of house prices month on month. In the absence of the impact of the closure and control of the epidemic, the probability of year-on-year recovery of real estate sales after relaxing the “four limits” is high. Therefore, if the normalized nucleic acid detection in the second half of the year can reduce the probability of epidemic sealing and control, the positive month on month growth of house prices and the year-on-year growth of real estate sales area are still worthy of our expectation.
According to the historical law, if the subsequent sales data are observed to stabilize around the middle of the year, superimposed with the supply side rescue policy, the growth rate of real estate investment is also expected to stabilize in the second half of this year, which is of great significance to the stable economic growth and the reconstruction of market confidence this year.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China exceeded expectations; The stimulus of real estate policy exceeded expectations; Credit default of real estate enterprises exceeded expectations
