The impact of the epidemic on the economy in April was obvious, and the growth of a number of economic data turned negative; In May, the LPR over 5-year period was lowered more than expected.
The economic data released in April this week showed that a number of data showed negative growth against the background of the rebound of the epidemic in many places.
In terms of economic data, in April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value decreased by 2.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing industrial added value decreased by 4.6%, which is an important reason for the year-on-year decline of industrial added value. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of high-tech industry was only 4%, down 9.8 percentage points from March, and the growth rate fell the most. In terms of consumption, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero decreased by 11.1%. After deducting price factors, social zero actually decreased by 14.02% year-on-year in April. The consumption elasticity of residents has decreased significantly. First, the proportion of consumption of daily necessities has increased. Second, the growth rate of consumption of flexible consumer goods has decreased greatly. Third, the post cycle consumption of real estate is OK, but the automobile consumption has declined sharply due to the influence of both supply and demand. In terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 6.8%, of which the growth rate of private fixed asset investment was 5.3%. In April, the growth rate of fixed investment in infrastructure construction was 3% year-on-year, the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.4%, and the growth rate of real estate investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year. We need to pay attention to the situation that the growth rate of foreign fixed asset investment in April fell sharply by 5.1 percentage points compared with that from January to March, and whether foreign fixed asset investment will stabilize and recover in May.
In terms of financial data, the public financial revenue in April reached 1225.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.34% compared with the same period last year, of which the tax revenue decreased by 47.31%, and the scale of non tax revenue increased by 10.30% year-on-year. The large-scale implementation of retention tax rebate was the main reason for the significant decline of public financial revenue in April. In terms of expenditure, the national general public budget expenditure decreased by 1.96% year-on-year in April, but the growth rate of expenditure in the field of health and health increased. In addition, the trend of budgetary expenditure in favor of infrastructure remained unchanged.
In May, the newly released five-year LPR quotation was lowered more than expected, which was the first monthly reduction of 15bp since the reform. Its significance is mainly in the following two aspects. First, the five-year LPR has a significant impact on the interest rate of residential housing loans. At present, the sales of commercial housing continues to decline. The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in April was – 20.90% year-on-year, and the residential housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan. However, at the end of March, the average interest rate of individual housing loans was still as high as 5.49%, which suppressed the residents’ willingness to buy houses. The sluggish sales side has a great impact on the investment in real estate development in the second half of the year, Urgent need for comprehensive policy stimulus; Second, the five-year LPR is also related to the interest rates of medium and long-term manufacturing and infrastructure supporting loans. At present, the medium and short-term loans and bill impulse of enterprise loans are serious. In April, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 395.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and the decline of financing costs of the whole society is more conducive to the release of loan demand after the epidemic is alleviated.
Overseas, first of all, the moderate improvement of us and European economic data in April boosted market sentiment. US retail sales in April rose 8.19% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 6.9%; The output value of manufacturing industry increased by 0.8%, which was the same as that in March and increased steadily for the third consecutive month. In Europe, GDP in the euro zone increased by 0.3% in the first quarter. Secondly, Fed officials’ radical statements about raising interest rates have eased. In an interview with the media on Tuesday, Fed chairman Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the next two meetings. On the same day, St. Louis Fed President Brad also expressed support for the fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting instead of 75 basis points.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
