This week, the European Union plans to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia, and the market is expected to gradually improve China’s demand, with international crude oil rising in shock. On May 13, the EU planned to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia, which hit the largest refinery in Ukraine, while the price of gasoline in the United States jumped to an all-time high. On May 16, US gasoline continued to hit a record high, and market supply concerns remained unabated under the continuous impact of EU sanctions against Russia. In addition, the market expected that Chinese demand would gradually improve and the decline of US crude oil inventories would boost crude oil. However, the United States may relax some restrictions on the Venezuelan government, European and American stock markets fell, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates limited the rise of oil prices. As of the 19th, the price of WTI crude oil was USD 112.21/barrel, up 5.73% from last week, 10.43% from the average price of last month and 47.49% from the price at the beginning of the year; The price of oil distribution was USD 112.04/barrel, up 4.27% over the weekend, 5.78% over the average price of the previous month and 41.86% over the beginning of the year.
China’s tire exports increased significantly year-on-year in April. On May 18, the General Administration of Customs released the tire export data of April 2022. The export volume of Chinese tires in April was flat month on month and increased significantly year on year; The cumulative export volume in the first four months maintained a year-on-year growth trend; China’s tire export price still increased significantly year-on-year; In April this year, China’s total rubber tire exports were 640000 tons, unchanged month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%; The export volume of new tires was 1.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.87%, of which the export volume of new tires was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%; The export value was 10.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. According to the number of pneumatic rubber tires, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in April was 46.18 million, a month on month decrease of 1.09 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points narrower than that in March. In the first four months from January to April this year, China’s cumulative export volume of rubber tires was 2.42 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year (the same below); The export value was 39.442 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7%. Among them, the cumulative export of new pneumatic rubber tires was 2.33 million tons, an increase of 3%; The export value was 37.756 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2%. Calculated by the number of tires, 183.81 million new pneumatic rubber tires were exported from January to April, down 2.8%.
BHP Billiton is considering accelerating its entry into the potash market. According to Reuters, BHP CEO Mike Henry said on May 17 that due to the disruption of the global supply chain due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, BHP is considering increasing the development speed of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada. BHP Billiton is evaluating the possibility that Jansen project will be put into operation in 2026. According to the previous plan, Jansen phase 1 will be put into operation for the first time in 2027. At present, it has also started the planning of Jansen phase 2. In August 2021, BHP approved the investment plan of US $5.7 billion for Jansen phase 1. After completion, the project will produce 4.35 million tons of potassium chloride per year.
APC of Jordan signed a potassium chloride contract with IPL of India. According to the Jordanian times, on May 14, APC signed a five-year memorandum of understanding with Indian IPL, agreeing that APC will provide 275000325000 tons of potassium chloride to IPL every year, which is valid until 2026. The price will be consistent with the current Indian potassium chloride import contract price, which is currently US $590 / ton CFR. According to anba, APC announced last week that it plans to increase potash sales to Brazil by about 300000 tons in 2022 and reach 1.2 million tons in 2026.
Shandong took the lead in introducing alternative measures for carbon emission reduction of “two high” projects, which are applicable to coking and other industries. Recently, Shandong Provincial Department of ecological environment and Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “alternative measures for carbon emission reduction of high energy consumption and high emission construction projects in Shandong Province (for Trial Implementation)”, starting from the source control of “two high” industries, strictly control the carbon emission of new projects. According to the measures, the newly-built investment projects in the upstream primary processing, high energy consumption and high emission links of 16 “two high” industries in Shandong Province are included in the management scope. The new carbon emissions of the proposed project need to be implemented by other ways. The carbon emissions of alternative sources shall be determined by 1.2 or 1.5 substitution proportion according to the industry, so as to ensure that the total carbon emissions of “two high” projects will only be reduced but not increased.
Risk factors: the risk of declining demand caused by macroeconomic depression; Risks of rising raw material costs or falling product prices; The risk of economic expansion policy falling short of expectations
