Loose housing loans support real estate, and the signal of steady growth is more clear
On May 20, the latest LPR quotation was released, and the one-year LPR was 3.7%, which was the same as the previous value; The five-year LPR was 4.45%, down 15bp compared with the previous month. Since the reform of LPR system, compared with the five-year LPR, the one-year adjustment range is large. This time, the one-year LPR remains unchanged, and the five-year lpr15bp is reduced at one time, which exceeds the market expectation. As the epidemic had a great impact on the real economy, the demand remained depressed, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents fell, and the growth rate of land related fiscal revenue continued to decline in April. Therefore, the central government has stepped up efforts to stabilize growth, including the five-year LPR reduction and the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial loans for personal first homes. The real estate policy combination aims to reduce the cost of house purchase loans, stimulate the recovery of real demand, and alleviate the pressure of local government stock debt. On May 18, Premier Li Keqiang once again mentioned “supporting residents’ reasonable housing demand”, and the central bank mentioned that “the macro leverage ratio will rise”, and the policy overweight may improve the weak situation of commercial housing sales. Since 2022, nearly 110 cities have responded to the “city based policies”, including reducing the down payment ratio of house purchase and reducing the mortgage interest rate. Recently, Changsha, Hefei, Yangzhou, Suzhou and other cities have continued to optimize their house purchase policies under the framework of “implementing policies for the city”, and the scope of cities has become more and more extensive, and the intensity has increased. At present, the epidemic situation has improved significantly, and Shanghai is gradually promoting the resumption of work and production in stages. When the impact of the epidemic subsides, the policy overweight is expected to promote the stabilization and rebound of the real estate sales end, and the credit easing will be supported. Consumer building materials with greater flexibility under the expected improvement of real estate benefit from: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu. Steady growth as the main tone of 2022, the central government has repeatedly released stability maintenance signals, including the importance of infrastructure investment emphasized by General Secretary Xi at the central financial and Economic Commission held on April 26. The status of infrastructure construction has been significantly improved. At present, it is the best time to allocate relevant industrial chains. The direction of the infrastructure industry chain is clear, the demand is uncertain, and the beneficiary objects are: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) . In the context of “double carbon”, the low-carbon transformation of energy is the main line of certainty, and carbon fiber, photovoltaic glass and glass fiber will continue to benefit from the growth of demand. Beneficiary: carbon fiber Faucet: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Photovoltaic glass Faucet: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Glass fiber Faucet: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Market review this week
This week (may 16-may 20, 2022), the building materials index rose 2.78%, the CSI 300 index rose 2.23%, and the building materials index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.55pct. In the past three months, the CSI 300 index fell by 12.01%, the building materials index fell by 11.96%, and the building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.05pct. Over the past year, the CSI 300 index fell by 20.58%, and the building materials index fell by 15.54%. The building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.04pct.
Plate data tracking
Cement: as of May 20, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 448.54 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 1.93%; The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 70.01%, with a month on month increase of 2.85%; The price difference between cement and coal was 291.89 yuan / ton, down 2.93% month on month.
Glass: as of May 20, the national average spot price of float glass was 197938 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 44.35 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.19%; The average price of photovoltaic glass was 178.13 yuan / weight box, up slightly by 0.12% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash petroleum coke was 9.55 yuan / weight box, down 13.77% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash heavy oil was 23.29 yuan / weight box, down 7.03% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash natural gas was 33.62 yuan / weight box, down 4.78% month on month; The price difference of photovoltaic glass soda ash natural gas was 111.36 yuan / weight box, which was basically the same month on month.
Glass fiber: as of May 20, the mainstream ex factory price of alkali free 2400 winding direct yarn was 57905850 yuan / ton, down 2.69% month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex jet ply yarn was 94009700 yuan / ton, down 1.22% month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex SMC composite yarn was 8 Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) 0 yuan / ton, down 0.92% month on month.
Carbon fiber: as of May 20, the average price of small tow carbon fiber in China was 225 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow carbon fiber in China was 145 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The national carbon fiber inventory was 11 tons, and the operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises was 66.25%, unchanged month on month; The gross profit of carbon fiber was 5711111 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.71% month on month.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Downside risks of economic growth; China’s monetary and real estate policies are becoming stricter; China’s credit is lower than expected
