Key investment points:
The performance of medicine was weaker than the market this week
Shenwan pharmaceutical biology fell 2.01% this week, and its overall performance was weaker than the market. The decline in the device sub industry and chemical agent sub industry was relatively small, and the medical device sub industry fell by 1.54%; The chemical pharmaceutical sub industry fell 1.62%. The medical service sub industry fell by 2.01%, the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry fell by 2.15%, and the biological products sub industry fell by 2.86%; The pharmaceutical business sub industry fell 2.96%.
Covid-19 drug / vaccine and monkeypox theme performed relatively well this week
Covid-19 and monkeypox themes performed relatively well this week, with covid-19 small molecule drugs, covid-19 vaccines and conventional vaccines / testing enterprises of different routes leading the rise one after another. On May 10, the patent of effective stephanine for pangolin coronavirus was obtained, which led to the rise of relevant concept enterprises; On May 18, after Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) covid-19 drug vv116’s open label clinical data disclosure and Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) obtaining vv116’s strategic cooperation order, vv116 related enterprises performed well; May 19 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) biological covid-19 vaccine entered the WHO emergency use list. On May 20, the World Health Organization reported more than 80 cases of monkeypox, which aroused attention to the new virus and led to the rise of share prices of vaccine and testing reagent enterprises.
Outlook for next week: it is recommended to focus on covid-19 small molecule drugs / detection reagents / enterprises with high overseas revenue. We expect covid-19 small molecule drugs to remain the focus of attention. Real organisms and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) covid-19 drugs have entered phase III clinical stage or later stage. It is recommended to continue to focus on the research and development progress of domestic covid-19 drugs. At present, monkeypox cases have been found in many countries. Due to the long development cycle of virus vaccine and the relatively short development cycle of detection reagent, we can pay attention to the short-term performance of detection reagent enterprises. Since the second quarter, the RMB has been devalued as a whole. The US dollar against RMB has been adjusted from 6.4 at the beginning of the period to 6.7. The adjustment range is large. The currency devaluation is good for exports. Enterprises with more exports and less hedging are expected to perform relatively well. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with high overseas income.
Monthly gold shares in May
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ): a multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive instrument leader, after covid-19, it will enjoy the acceleration of global layout and the business cycle of China’s new infrastructure, and its performance can grow continuously and stably. The company has adjusted to the bottom range of multi-year valuation, corresponding to the closing price on May 20. The valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 37x and 29x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ): HPV vaccine batch issuance has increased steadily, children’s vaccination is expected to recover gradually, covid-19 vaccine booster needle continues, sequential vaccination is implemented, and it is expected to become a stable cash flow in the future; The company has strong marketing capabilities and rich independent vaccine R & D pipelines. Wechat has started to work this year, and the largest employee stock ownership plan is deeply bound to core employees. Corresponding to the closing price on May 20, the valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 21x and 16x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk; Trade friction exceeded expectations; Policy risk
