Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: oil prices rose in shock. In the early part of the week, the EU planned to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia, which hit the largest refinery in Ukraine. At the same time, the US gasoline price jumped to an all-time high. Investors remained worried about the tight supply of crude oil, and the international oil price fluctuated upward. In the late part of the week, under the influence of EU sanctions against Russia, the market’s concern about crude oil supply remained unabated, adding to the market expectation that China’s demand would gradually improve and the decline of U.S. crude oil inventories would boost crude oil. However, the United States may relax some restrictions on the Venezuelan government. At the same time, the decline of European and American stock markets and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates limited the rise of oil prices. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 112.62 (+ 5.94) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 112.44 (+ 7.96) USD / barrel.
PX: the market continues to close up. On the supply side, the supply of PX market increased steadily during the week. A set of PX device in Shandong was warmed up and restarted. Individual factories increased the load synchronously, and the market supply increased slightly. On the demand side, there is no obvious device change in the downstream PTA week, the demand for raw materials is limited, and the overall demand remains at a high position. In terms of profit, affected by the rise of crude oil price shock, the cost side support is strong, the market price of PX remains strong in the week, the PX production profit continues to rise this week, and the industry profit remains good. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 129294 (+ 58.30) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 470.72 (+ 14.87) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 359.86 (+ 58.38) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 77.26% (+ 2.72pct).
PTA: the center of gravity rises as a whole. There was no significant change in PTA market supply during the week. There was occasional large-scale production and sales of polyester in the downstream, and the supply and demand maintained a loose balance. Due to the obvious increase in the cost side and the low downstream cash flow, the undertaking of polyester to high costs is limited, and the purchase is mainly based on rigid demand. At the same time, PTA starts to maintain a high position, and the factory inventory rises slightly. During the week, PTA processing fees were still compressed at a low position, and the profit performance of the industry was poor. In the late part of the week, with a certain weakening of crude oil prices, the current PTA market fell, and the market mainly digested the increase in the early stage. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 677857 (+ 275.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -276.39 (- 63.77) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 68.60% (+ 0.60pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1897000 (+ 60) tons.
MEG: high price adjustment. On the supply side, a set of ethylene glycol plant in China was shut down for maintenance. The supply contraction and strong cost boost the market to a certain extent. However, due to the recent operation of new plants, the overall supply side increased slightly. During the week, the unloading volume of the port was limited, and the reduction of delivery volume led to the continuous rise of inventory, and the pressure on the supply side remained. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester in the downstream increased slightly during the week, but the trading atmosphere in the downstream market was light, so it was difficult to increase the demand for raw materials significantly. Therefore, the high consolidation after the rise of ethylene glycol market price this week was the main trend. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 497643 (+ 92.86) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 1187300 (+ 25700) tons, and the operating rate is 57.20% (- 1.70pct).
Polyester filament: strong price support. The support of polymerization cost is strong, the quotation of polyester filament is raised, and the focus of market transactions continues to rise, but the downstream demand is weak, the production and marketing rate has fallen sharply, and the market as a whole is in a state of loss. On the supply side, the operating rate of filament enterprises decreased slightly compared with last week, but the enterprise inventory pressure is large. On the demand side, affected by the rise in raw material prices, the downstream has insufficient acceptance of product price rise, few orders and multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy836143 (+ 303.57) yuan / ton, fdy902143 (+ 267.14) yuan / ton and dty972857 (+ 271.43) yuan / ton, the average profit per ton of the industry is poy-205.84 (+ 23.15) yuan / ton, fdy-33.27 (- 1.02) yuan / ton and dty-161.27 (+ 1.82) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy32.25 yuan / ton respectively 20 (+ 0.70) days, fdy33 00 (+ 0.30) days and dty39 60 (+ 1.10) days, operating rate 79.20% (+ 0.20pct).
Weaving: the profit of products is thin. Driven by the release of some orders this week, the operating rate of looms increased slightly. However, due to the impact of the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, the grey cloth profit is thin, superimposing the high inventory of finished products. At present, it is mainly to digest the inventory, and the textile market demand maintains a weak operation. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 49.00% (+ 0.15pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 35.10 (- 0.40) days.
Polyester staple fiber: market shock downward. The price of crude oil was higher at the beginning of the week, but the price of crude oil was higher and the price of crude oil was higher. In the middle of the week, the oil price rose again and the cost support was strong, but the downstream chasing up sentiment was lack, and the production and sales performance was average. In the late part of the week, the oil price fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the futures disk trend fell, the market mentality was empty, and the transaction focus fell. On the supply side, Chuzhou and Suqian staple fiber plants warmed up and restarted this week, and the output increased. The demand for short yarn from downstream enterprises is generally weak, and the demand for short fiber from downstream enterprises is generally weak. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 847667 (+ 146.19) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 36.58 (- 81.30) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 0.70 (+ 0.20) days, and the operating rate is 64.90% (+ 1.60pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the price has increased significantly. The logistics and transportation in Jiangyin area recovered slightly this week, and the commencement of various bottle and chip enterprises was relatively stable. A device in Northeast China was overhauled for about 15 days during the week. This week, the bottle chip market fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream was more resistant to the supply of high price goods, mainly focusing on rigid demand, with general transaction performance. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 892500 (+ 235.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is 466.89 (- 21.88) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 90.00% (- 0.20pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to May 20, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 124.49%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by 0.20%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 6.03%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
