Thermal coal: the closing price of QinGang was flat during the week (5.13-5.20) and closed at 1205 yuan / ton on the 20th Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi excellent mixing warehouse raised the price to close at 1390 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.72%, and the annual price center increased by 14.08% compared with last year. The daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces has decreased.
Metallurgical coal: the price of metallurgical coal was flat this week. The port main coking coal closed at 3050 yuan / ton on the 20th, which was flat during the week. The import price difference was 5 yuan / ton, and the upside down was lifted. The port inventory has been removed and is currently at a low level. The downstream inventory has been replenished. The price of Shanxi injection coal was the same as last week, closing at 2050 yuan / ton. Downstream inventory replenishment.
Coke steel: the prices of coke and rebar decreased this week. On the 20th, the price of secondary coke produced in Linfen closed at 3080 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 6.10%. It is estimated that the profit of coking plant is – 846 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week. The coke oven operating rate was 82.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week. Coke inventory in coking plant and port decreased, and coke inventory in steel plant rebounded. The steel price closed at 4849 yuan / ton, an increase and decrease of 2.22% this week. The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 81.94%, an increase of 0.00 percentage points over last week.
Equity view: the coal sector rose 10.9% this week, leading the industry. The rise was mainly due to the positive signals such as interest rate cut released by the central bank to improve the market’s expectations on the demand side. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic and the peak summer, the changes on the demand side deserve attention. At present, the supply structure is tight, and the pressure to ensure supply remains. Recent progress has been made in the customs clearance of Mongolian coal, but considering that the Chinese side has paid the full amount in advance from the mining side to chaganhada coal yard, the actual impact of the liberalization of the middle panel transportation of Mongolian coal is limited. Changes in Australia’s political situation may be good for the restart of Australian coal imports, especially Australian coking coal imports, but at present, overseas coal prices are high and trade competitiveness is weak. In general, under the new pattern of global coal trade, overseas coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the contraction of imported coal volume has reached a consensus expectation. According to coal types, different coal types show obvious differentiation. The price of thermal coal continued to rebound. The scope of thermal coal was clarified at the policy end for the first time. The tolerance of price control has been relaxed in this round. At the same time, the new constraints will not affect coking coal and chemical coal. Metallurgical coal leveled, imported coal rose and the upside down was lifted. After the release of performance, the dynamic valuation of the sector returned to a low level. Attention to Yankuang energy; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
View of coal enterprises: improve their credit repayment ability. Future capital expenditure mainly comes from supply guarantee and transformation. In terms of primary issuance, the financing of bond issuers is normal. In the secondary market, under the belief restoration environment, the coal debt interest margin is basically the same as that before the Yongmei incident, which is relatively low, but the quantile of low-grade interest margin is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade. Shanxi coal restructuring has not yet ended, and the professional positioning of each company is clear. At present, the management right of the asset side is transferred and the ownership is shelved. The idea of “one game of chess” of debt has not changed, and it is expected that there will be a strong willingness to guarantee payment in the province. From the perspective of credit strategy, strong qualified subjects can find space in the long term, and the sinking strategy still needs to be cautious.
Risk warning: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Overseas coal prices fell sharply; Other disturbance factors.
