Industrial metals: internationally, the United Nations has sharply lowered the expectation of global economic growth, and the market is worried. The European and American economies showed signs of slowdown, and the logic of interest rate hike and economic slowdown dominated the market. In China, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has gradually improved, the resumption of production and work has gradually started, and the overall demand side is expected to be repaired in stages. On the whole, the five-year LPR fell by 15bp, the further relaxation of China’s real estate policy and the improvement of the epidemic will promote the gradual recovery of China’s economy, and the demand for industrial metals may be supported. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: logistics and production continue to recover, and the demand may gradually strengthen after the epidemic
Copper prices rose slightly this week. LME copper closed at US $9421 / ton, up about 2.26% during the week; Shanghai copper closed at 71900 yuan / ton, up about 1.18% during the week. In terms of China’s fundamentals, on the supply side, with the continuous recovery of logistics and production, the situation of supply repair may gradually appear. It is expected that the arrival of imported copper will increase next week, and the railway in Guangdong will return to normal, and the supply will increase. On the demand side, traditional copper terminal consumption is facing the dilemma of insufficient driving force of domestic demand and slowing export growth. However, the impact of China’s epidemic on industrial production is gradually weakened. When the epidemic improves, the marginal of most terminal industries improves, and copper demand also begins to strengthen. In terms of inventory, copper inventory in mainstream areas in China increased by 100000 tons compared with last Friday, and weekly inventory increased slightly. China’s economic restart is expected to bring rebound momentum, and is optimistic about the future performance of copper prices.
Aluminum: the operating rate rises slightly, superimposed with the trend of destocking, and the aluminum price may be supported
The international aluminum price rebounded this week, and LME aluminum closed at US $2970 / ton, up about 5.00% during the week; Shanghai aluminum closed at 20820 yuan / ton, up 2.54% during the week. In terms of China’s fundamentals, on the supply side, most of China’s electrolytic aluminum enterprises focus on stable operation, and the release of re production capacity promotes the year-on-year growth of China’s electrolytic aluminum output. On the demand side, the operating rate in most regions fluctuated steadily month on month this week, while enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places increased slightly driven by the improvement of the epidemic situation. The enthusiasm for replenishing the downstream warehouse in Wuxi and Gongyi regions was good, and the aluminum ingot remained in the state of destocking. Overall, in the short term, China’s aluminum consumption will improve and the aluminum social inventory will continue to show a downward trend. It is expected that the aluminum price may be dominated by strong shocks.
Tin: the decline of tin price narrowed, the supply was loose, and the price may maintain a slight fluctuation. LME tin closed at US $34120 / ton, up about 0.95% from last week. Shanghai tin closed at 284190 yuan / ton, down about 0.47% from last week. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production of Chinese smelters is stable, and the operating rate of refineries in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is stable, with an increase in the chain and a slight increase in the chain. According to market news feedback, the impact of Myanmar epidemic on the raw material side is weakened, and the closed and controlled ports are expected to resume opening in mid and late May. On the demand side, the previous sharp fluctuations in tin prices exacerbated the market wait-and-see sentiment. The overall market demand is weak, superimposed with loose expectations on the supply side, and the tin price may fluctuate slightly in the short term.
Zinc: China’s supply and demand are both weak, and the zinc price still needs to wait for fundamental improvement. LME zinc closed at US $3705 / ton, up 4.68% from last week. Shanghai zinc closed at 25685 yuan / ton, up 0.63% from last week, and the zinc price showed an upward trend as a whole. In terms of China’s fundamentals, the supply side, the current market shortage of ore side is still continuing, and the average price of national zinc ore processing fee has fallen to 3500 yuan / ton. On the demand side, there were policies or rumors this week, which boosted the short-term sentiment of the market. However, considering that the implementation of policies still takes time, the demand has not actually improved in the short term. Zinc ingots accumulated again this week, which also reflects that the actual downstream consumption of zinc has not really improved.
Energy metal: energy metal: energy metal: affected by the epidemic and overseas interest rate hikes, superimposed by the impact of the epidemic and overseas interest rates, the market price of energy metal is high. The overall trend of the energy metal market is still weak, and the willingness to purchase from the main demand side in the market is low. This week’s main energy metal varieties are mostly stabilizing, and the main energy metal varieties will continue to be optimistic about the weakening of the epidemic and the release of new energy demand. It’s suggested to focus on: attention: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 460 \. Attention: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 460460460 the Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tengyuan cobalt, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue to play games, and the price of lithium salt fluctuates slightly
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 461500 yuan / ton, the same as last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 467500 yuan / ton, the same as last week. Spodumene prices closed at 4755 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. On the demand side, due to the downstream just need to purchase this week, the market inquiry is gradually increasing. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production and the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase significantly. On the supply side, due to the release of new production capacity of some Chinese manufacturers, the overall lithium salt supply is in a stable and rising state. However, due to shipping and other factors, the import of lithium carbonate in April was less than expected. Considering that the overall marginal state of “increase in supply and decrease in demand” is improving, it is expected that the lithium price will still be supported.
Cobalt: weak demand suppresses the price of cobalt, and the sharp reduction of cobalt raw materials in April may support the price
The price of cobalt continued to decline this week, and the price of electrolytic cobalt was 501000 yuan / ton, down 5.4% from last week. The price of cobalt intermediate products was US $33 / pound, down 4.3% from last week. On the demand side and consumption side, affected by the off-season consumption of electronic products and the epidemic, manufacturers schedule production according to the order quantity and reduce product inventory, resulting in weak downstream procurement demand; In addition, the demand for new energy is suppressed by the epidemic and affected by the high price of main raw materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, and the game mood of the industrial chain is strong. On the supply side, the inventory of finished products in cobalt salt plant is seriously overstocked, while the current demand continues to be weak, supply exceeds demand, and there is downward pressure on cobalt price. However, the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell sharply month on month in May, which may support the price of cobalt.
Nickel: Lun nickel inventory remains low, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level
This week, LME nickel closed at US $27675 / ton and SHFE nickel closed at RMB 212800 / ton. LME nickel increased by 1.10% and SHFE nickel increased by 4.52% year-on-year. On the supply side, the weather in Indonesia affects the supply of nickel ore. On the demand side, the demand for new energy is under pressure, and the demand for traditional stainless steel has also declined slightly. According to Mysteel, the output of 300 series crude steel of 40 stainless steel plants in China in May was 1449200 tons, which is expected to decrease by 1.9% month on month and 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of inventory, Lun nickel has 71900 tons of inventory, which is still at a low level. The supply of refined nickel in the Chinese market is still tight, which may form a significant support for nickel price in the short term.
Precious metals: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, and the hedging attribute of gold price is highlighted
Gold rebounded this week. Comex gold closed at $1845.1 an ounce on Friday, up 1.92% from last week and 1.22% during the week. COMEX silver futures closed at $21.77 an ounce, up 3.03% from last week. The dollar index fell this week. Late Thursday in New York, the dollar index fell 0.99% to 102.89, a two-week low. According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, as of May 14, the number of first-time jobless claims increased by 21000 to 218000, higher than expected, the highest level since January.
Under the expectation of tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the market has intensified concerns about the US economy falling into recession, poor economic data or deepening the risk of recession, supporting the gold price. According to wind, the United Nations released the report on the world economic situation and outlook in 2022, which lowered the global economic growth expectation in 2022 from 4% to 3.1%, while the global inflation expectation rose to 6.7%. If the upward pressure of inflation continues to increase in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest rate hike and table contraction, or solidify the global stagflation pattern, highlighting the safe haven attribute of gold. In the medium and short term, it is expected that the bottom of gold price will stabilize and remain volatile.
Rare earth: waste pressure is prominent, and rare earth prices continue to rebound
This week, the mainstream quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 925 Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) 000 yuan / ton, an increase of 40000 yuan / ton compared with last week.; The quotation of terbium oxide and metal terbium were 14.6-14.8 million yuan / ton and 18.4-18.6 million yuan / ton respectively, up 100000 yuan / ton and 300000 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week. On the demand side, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakened, the resumption of production and work is actively promoted, and the demand for rare earths will continue to increase. On the supply side, the pressure of waste supply is prominent, and foreign rare earth imports will continue to be affected due to the epidemic and other reasons. In the short term, rare earth prices may remain high and volatile. In the medium and long term, the orderly release of China’s quotas, the limited increment of overseas supply and the long snowy slope of downstream demand for rare earth will become a strong support for the price of rare earth, and the rare earth industry is expected to rise both in volume and price. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
