Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticide ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products fell, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas fell, LNG gas fell and coal price rose; The prices of aromatics and phosphorus chemical products rose. This week, China's chemical price index ccpi-0.2%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 0.9%, imported lpg-3.7%, domestic LNG - 0.7%, bituminous coal + 5.2%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some aromatics products rose, while the prices of C3 products fell; On the product side, the prices of some phosphorus chemical products rose, while the prices of some chlor alkali, polyurethane, plastics, vitamins and amino acids fell.
Oil prices rose this week, geopolitical influence continued, and demand is expected to improve.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 111.6 to 112.6 US dollars / barrel (up 0.9%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 110.5 to 113.2 US dollars / barrel (up 2.5%); US commercial crude oil inventories were 421 million barrels (Mom - 0.8%), and 576 US crude oil wells were drilled (mom + 2.3%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, there is still no sign of opening peace talks between Russia and Ukraine recently, the military actions of the two sides are still continuing, and the EU and the United States are also promoting the sanctions plan against Russia. In addition, although the U.S. sanctions against Venezuela is slightly relaxed and the EU is also involved in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, neither of the two things can be quickly implemented in the short term. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the market has recently expressed concerns about the U.S. economic recession, but the Asian epidemic continues to release improvement signals. Next week, the United States will also enter the peak driving season in summer, and the demand side is expected to continue to improve. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle continues, which is good for the US dollar in the long term. Recently, the US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range and remained high, which has formed a certain negative inhibition on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, there has been progress on the sanctions issues in Iran and Venezuela, but it is expected that the full lifting of the ban will not be achieved overnight. At the same time, there is no ceasefire timetable for the Russian Ukrainian conflict, and the struggle between the two sides is still continuing.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: the overall rise of natural gas in Europe and the United States this week was NBP + 32.38%, TTF + 0.62%, HH + 9.55% and AECO + 3.21%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 26.20% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain was + 8.76%, and Europe TTF spot chain was + 11.04%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 6961 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of - 3.52%, and the average sales price at the terminal was 7385 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of - 252 yuan / ton (- 3.30%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data this week, as of May 13, the US natural gas inventory was 1732 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of + 89 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of + 5.42%, year-on-year ratio of - 17.10%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of May 13, the European natural gas inventory was 1463.1 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of + 121987 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of + 9.10%, a year-on-year increase of + 19.10%).
China's price: China's LNG decreased this week. As of May 19, the quotation of LNG main origin was 6894 yuan / ton, down from - 0.73% last week; The prices of consumer places went down simultaneously. As of May 19, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 7386 yuan / ton, down - 2.47% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 7679 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 3.89%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are tetrachloroethylene + 24%, isobutyraldehyde + 5%, styrene butadiene rubber + 5%, monoammonium phosphate (55% powder) + 5%, chlorpyrifos (96%) + 4%, chloroacetic acid + 4%, vinyl acetate + 4%, dimethyl carbonate DMC + 4%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are liquid chlorine-43%, hexanediamine-21%, chloroform-16%, butanone-13% and methylamine-10%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to the photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon - 3%, trichlorosilane flat, soda ash (light + 2%, heavy + 2%), vinyl acetate + 4%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) equal. Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid + 2%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade is the same, battery grade is the same), iron phosphate is the same, industrial ammonium phosphate (73%) + 3%, lithium hexafluorophosphate - 8%, etc.
Some downstream orders increased, the overhaul of large factories affected the supply, and the price of tetrachloroethylene increased.
Vinyl chloride (East China) rose 24.4% to 10200 yuan / ton on Thursday. On the demand side, according to Yingfu Baichuan, the downstream R125 market is on the sidelines to maintain stability. The after-sales market is affected by local control and transportation capacity obstruction, the overall recovery is weak, and the downstream mixed distribution demand has increased. In addition, some downstream manufacturers in Shandong still need to purchase Chinese tetrachloroethylene, which is favorable due to the increase of orders; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the manufacturers in Inner Mongolia had maintenance this week, and the other manufacturers started smoothly. Affected by the maintenance of large factories, the on-site supply was reduced, the spot was tight, mainly for self-use and mixed distribution, and the trading volume was limited. In addition, the tetrachloroethylene unit of a large factory in Shandong may have problems, but at present, the production is normal, even the production burden is increased, and there is no lack of maintenance in the later stage.
The output declined slightly, the market supply was tight, and the price of monoammonium phosphate increased.
Monoammonium phosphate (55% powder, Jiangsu) rose 4.7% to 4500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to the trend of Baichuan Yingfu, the compound fertilizer market continues to operate upward, and downstream traders and factories purchase cautiously; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current construction and output in China have decreased slightly compared with that of last week, mainly due to the production reduction of some enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and Sichuan, and the overall output has decreased slightly. At present, most monoammonium manufacturers have suspended quotation and receipt, and the market supply is tight.
The cost is stable, medium and strong, and the supply continues to tighten, pushing up the price of chlorpyrifos.
Chlorpyrifos (96%, East China) rose 4.4% to 47000 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the prices of upstream raw materials sodium trichloropyridyl alcohol and ethyl chloride are adjusted at a high level, and the cost of chlorpyrifos is stable, medium and strong; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the recent downstream market situation is general, and purchasers basically buy on demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, Hubei suppliers started steadily this week. Hubei manufacturers have long-term orders being delivered, and the order receiving space is tightened. A mainstream manufacturer in Jiangsu stopped for maintenance, and a mainstream supplier in Chongqing maintained low load. It mainly focuses on the delivery of early orders, which can receive less new orders, and the market supply continues to tighten.
The cost support was strong, the supply was reduced, and the price of chloroacetic acid increased.
Chloroacetic acid (Hebei) rose 4.3% to 5450 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current price of acetic acid in China is strong, forming a cost support for chloroacetic acid; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the downstream just needs to take goods; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the unit maintenance of individual chloroacetic acid enterprises in Henan and the unit shutdown and sorting of individual enterprises in Hebei this week, the inventory level of enterprises is not high, many early orders are mainly issued, most enterprises are in the closed state, and the supply of chloroacetic acid is reduced.
The downstream goods receiving intention is good, the operating load is low, and the price of vinyl acetate rises.
Vinyl acetate (East China) rose 4.0% to 15750 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream has a smooth digestion of vinyl acetate and a good intention of receiving goods; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the overall operating load of the market is low, the inventory of various manufacturers is not high, and the market spot is still tight. In addition, foreign vinyl acetate factories shut down unexpectedly for maintenance, and overseas vinyl acetate prices rose sharply, boosting the Chinese market.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
