Zhou's view: the interest rate cut is good for securities companies, and the main line of big wealth management is the first to be promoted
The 5-year LPR cut is expected to promote the release of medium and long-term loans and house purchase demand, reduce residents' debt pressure, stabilize residents' leverage, benefit the economy and stock market, and the interest rate cut is expected to catalyze the stock market of securities companies. At present, the roe, asset quality and policy prospects of the securities industry are better than those in 2018, and the valuation is lower than the lowest level in 2018. It has long-term allocation value and considerable short-term valuation flexibility. We are the first to promote the main line of big wealth management with flexibility and growth, and are optimistic about the head securities companies with marginal profitability. In addition, we recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which is optimistic about the subject matter with high dividend yield and continued landscape, to benefit from the subject matter China property insurance.
Securities companies: the valuation has long-term allocation value, and the landing of interest rate reduction is optimistic about the sector opportunities
(1) the newly established partial stock fund of 2.5 billion this week is still at a low level, with an average daily stock turnover of 815.3 billion, maintaining the level of 800 billion since May. From the weekly change data of stock ETF shares dominated by individual investors, the stock market rebound in recent three weeks has caused a certain net redemption of the fund, which is in line with the law of basic people's behavior in the historical rebound stage. (2) In terms of policy, the measures for the supervision and administration of fund managers was issued this week, including most of the specific measures in the previous "16 articles on the high-quality development of public funds", which is in line with expectations. Specifically, it includes supporting qualified professional asset management institutions to apply for public offering licenses (including bank financial management), allowing securities companies to "one participation, one control and one license", improving the qualification of natural person shareholders and restricting the equity transfer of major natural person shareholders. In addition, the "23 articles on epidemic relief of the CSRC" were released to support direct financing in areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic. (3) At present, the development trend, roe and asset quality of the securities industry are significantly better than those in 2018, and the sector valuation is lower than the lowest level in 2018. The industry roe is still in the upward channel, and the current valuation has long-term allocation value; The 5-year LPR reduction is conducive to boosting the economy and stock market, and is optimistic about the sector opportunities of securities companies. It is the first to promote the main line of big wealth management with flexibility and growth, and the valuation of leading targets has a margin of safety. It is recommended that China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) ; From the perspective of marginal prosperity, it is optimistic that the annual profit is expected to outperform the target of the industry, benefiting Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) .
Insurance: the improvement of the epidemic situation is expected to drive the improvement of automobile insurance. The prosperity and dividend rate of China's property insurance are good
(1) in April, the total life insurance premiums of listed insurance companies increased by 0.8% year-on-year (March 2022 + 0.4%), of which: The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 22.1%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) + 4.0%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 3.8%, China Taiping - 2.3%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -2.4%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) - 2.7%. Affected by the base, it is expected that the year-on-year pressure on NBV of most insurance companies will be relieved in April and even in the second quarter, while the transformation is relatively strong, and insurance companies may still bear some pressure. (2) In April 2022, the property insurance premium income of five listed insurance companies was + 2.3% year-on-year, which continued to fall compared with + 10.2% in March. It is expected that it is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on new car sales and drag down vehicle insurance. With the gradual emergence of epidemic prevention effect, some areas will gradually return to work and production, which is expected to improve the vehicle insurance premium. (3) At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation. We pay attention to the effect of debt side transformation, and recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ; China Property Insurance (H-share), AIA (H-share) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ; Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
