Core view
The overall performance of the machinery industry in 2021 and 2022q1 is in the middle. In 2021, the overall revenue of the machinery industry was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. In 2022q1, the overall revenue of the machinery industry was 500.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, the compound growth rate of the overall revenue of the machinery industry from 2020q1 to 2022q1 was 25.6%, and the compound growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company was 54.3%. Among the 30 industries at the first level of CITIC, the machinery industry ranked 122022q1 in revenue growth in 2021, ranking 20th; In 2021, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of the machinery industry ranked No. 192022q1, ranking No. 20.
In the first quarter, the proportion of heavy holdings of funds in the machinery industry fell slightly, with special machinery sector as the key configuration. According to the statistics on the heavy positions of public funds in the machinery industry, the machinery allocation in the positions of public funds in 2021q4 hit a record high, with the total market value of positions reaching 327.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% month on month, and the fund shareholding ratio was 3.9%. Affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, the allocation of machinery industry in 2022q1 fund positions fell significantly, with a total market value of RMB 246.7 billion, a month on month decrease of 24.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and the fund shareholding ratio was 2.7%, a significant decrease compared with the previous quarter. 20222q1 is a mechanical industry industry in which a mechanical industry fund has a heavy position. The first ten shares are the first ten shares of the market value of the market value of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the market of the machine industry. The first ten shares of the first ten shares of the market value of the market of the machine industry. The first ten shares of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the market value of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the machine industry of the machine industry of the machine industry of the machine industry. The first ten shares of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the first ten shares of the market value of the market of the market of the market of the machine industry of the machine industry of the machine industry of the machine of the machine industry of the machine industry of the machine of the machine industry of the machine of the machine. The first of the last one of the last one of the last one of the hard\ \ and Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , with special mechanical sectors as the key configuration.
Semiconductor equipment, new energy equipment and other industries maintained a high outlook, and the performance of construction machinery industry was slightly lower than expected. 1) Construction machinery sector: under the epidemic, the performance of China’s construction machinery industry was slightly lower than expected. In 2021, the overall revenue of construction machinery sector was 454.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%; In 2022q1, the overall revenue of the construction machinery sector was 90.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 52.6%. Compared with 2020q1, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company still increased slightly, with an increase of 31.6% and 17.7% respectively. 2) Semiconductor equipment sector: the rising global semiconductor boom has driven the rapid growth of the performance of the semiconductor equipment sector. In 2021, the overall revenue of the semiconductor equipment sector was 43.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.2%; The overall revenue of 2022q1 semiconductor equipment sector was RMB 11.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 1.37 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Compared with 2020q1, the performance of 2022q1 semiconductor equipment sector still increased significantly, and the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent increased by 151.0% and 211.1% respectively. 3) New energy equipment sector: the prosperity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industry was high in the middle of 2021, driving the outstanding performance of equipment end. In 2021, the overall revenue of new energy equipment sector was 90.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.6%; In 2022q1, the new energy equipment sector achieved an overall revenue of 28.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.8%. Compared with 2020q1, the performance still increased significantly, and the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 233.4% and 218.9% respectively. 4) Automation equipment: the profits of the epidemic affected sector are under short-term pressure. The overall revenue of the automation equipment sector in 2021 was 53.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%; In 2022q1, the automation equipment sector achieved an overall revenue of 11.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 880 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. Compared with 2020q1, the performance of the automation equipment sector still increased significantly, and the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 61.2% and 45.0% respectively. 5) Rail transit equipment: affected by the epidemic, the overall performance of the rail transit sector continued to decline. In 2021, the overall revenue of the rail transit equipment sector was 294.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%; In 2022q1, the rail transit equipment sector achieved an overall revenue of 43.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.8%. Compared with 2020q1, the revenue of rail transit equipment sector increased slightly, with an increase of 1.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is still at a low level, down 12.6% from 2020q1.
Semiconductor equipment, new energy equipment and other subdivided fields maintain a high outlook. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal improvement of construction machinery. 1) Construction machinery: as of April 2022, the sales volume of excavators in China has increased negatively for 12 consecutive months, and the industry is temporarily in a downward cycle. The central economic work conference in 2022 put forward the goal of stable growth. With the development of infrastructure investment, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy and the resumption of epidemic impact mitigation projects, the industry is expected to have marginal improvement. At the same time, in the overseas market, the export sales volume of Chinese excavators has been “stable and progressive” for 15 consecutive months, which will also become an important driving force for the recovery of construction machinery sales. 2) Semiconductor equipment: the capital expenditure of wafer factories in Chinese Mainland remains high, and the demand for semiconductor equipment remains booming. At the same time, in the context of Sino US trade frictions, wafer factories in Chinese Mainland will accelerate the verification and procurement of local equipment manufacturers’ products in order to seek supply chain security, and localization is expected to be promoted rapidly. 3) New energy equipment: under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries maintain a high outlook. In terms of photovoltaic equipment, large-size silicon wafers face a gap between supply and demand, which promotes the release of demand for photovoltaic equipment; Hjt technology has been promoted smoothly, photoelectric conversion efficiency has been improved, and technological progress has promoted equipment upgrading, which continues to benefit hjt equipment enterprises. In terms of lithium battery equipment, the expansion of downstream market will drive the rapid growth of equipment demand; Mainstream power battery enterprises actively bind lithium battery equipment enterprises. It is expected that China’s lithium battery equipment market will maintain a high growth trend, and high-quality leading enterprises are expected to benefit. 4) Automation equipment: since 2021, the epidemic has affected the manufacturing industry, and the outlook has decreased. With the expansion of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in downstream 3C, automobile and other fields, China’s industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is expected to catch up with the international pace, and its development is in a vigorous period in the long run; Medium and high-end machine tools have import substitution space, and the improvement of NC rate of machine tools is expected to further improve the market share of domestic cutting tools; The laser industry is affected by the fluctuation of manufacturing industry in the short term and benefits from the improvement of penetration rate and the expansion of new applications in the long term. Relevant equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit. 5) Rail transit equipment: Based on the current epidemic situation and the national railway planning, the railway construction intensity is expected to remain low in 2022; Infrastructure investment is expected to boost the rail transit industry; Smart city rail may become a new trend in the development of urban rail transit. After sales maintenance presents a wide market space, and relevant equipment manufacturers are expected to make profits.
Investment advice
Construction machinery: after a sharp correction in the early stage, it has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation of the market for the industry. Under the expectation of stable growth policy, the infrastructure investment is accelerated and the marginal deregulation of real estate policy, and the industry is expected to usher in the valuation repair market. The relevant targets include Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , etc. Photovoltaic equipment: the prosperity is expected to continue, and the industrialization of hjt may be accelerated. The relevant targets include Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , etc. Lithium battery equipment: benefiting from the expansion of downstream market, mainstream power battery enterprises actively bind lithium battery equipment enterprises, and the relevant targets include Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co.Ltd(300457) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , etc. Semiconductor equipment: the demand for semiconductor equipment in Chinese Mainland remains high, and local equipment manufacturers will fully benefit from the cultivation of domestic supply chains by Chinese fabs. The related targets include Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) shanghai, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) tuojing technology, Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) etc. Automation equipment: with the expansion of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in downstream areas such as 3C and automobile, China’s industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is expected to catch up with the international pace quickly; Medium and high-end machine tools have import substitution space, and the improvement of NC rate of machine tools is expected to further improve the market share of domestic cutting tools; The laser industry is affected by the fluctuation of manufacturing industry in the short term and benefits from the improvement of penetration rate and the expansion of new applications in the long term. The relevant targets include Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , etc. Rail transit equipment: the acceleration of infrastructure investment is expected to boost the rail transit industry. The relevant targets include Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic continues to spread, and the resumption of production and work of relevant enterprises is affected; It takes some time for the real estate deregulation policy to be transmitted to the sales volume, resulting in the marginal improvement of the construction machinery industry lower than expected; The trade friction between China and the United States continued to escalate, which affected the expansion of Chinese wafer factories and equipment procurement; The progress of hjt technology upgrading is lower than expected; The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
