General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: life insurance continues to be under pressure in the short term, and the inflection point of property insurance prosperity is established. The manpower scale of 1q22 listed insurance enterprises has stabilized, the speed of manpower shedding has narrowed month on month, and the quality of the team has improved. Since March, the epidemic has been spreading all over the country, but under the effect of the extremely low base number in the same period and the marginal stabilization of team size, there are signs of stabilization and improvement at the bottom of new orders in March. We expect the positive trend to continue to the second quarter, the decline of NBV in the interim report is expected to narrow, and pay attention to the recovery of 1H22 new orders and value growth. In terms of property insurance, after the cyclical factors of the comprehensive reform of auto insurance are cleared, the auto insurance underwriting profit of 2h22 listed insurance enterprises is expected to usher in rising space, so as to promote the improvement of the overall profit margin of property insurance underwriting, and the annual operating advantages of insurance enterprises are expected to continue. Soochow Bank of Africa’s recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the CSRC issued the notice on further exerting the function of capital market to support the recovery and development of areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic. We believe that recently, the epidemic situation in China is complex and the uncertainty of the internal and external environment has increased. Affected by multiple factors, some enterprises, including listed companies, have stopped production, their performance has declined, the cost of Listed Companies in the middle and lower reaches has increased, some industries have difficulty in recovering from the epidemic, and the operating difficulties of private holding and small and medium-sized listed companies have increased significantly. The circular is an important measure to implement the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the executive meeting of the State Council and the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council. It is conducive to supporting market players to tide over difficulties, maintaining the stability of the capital market and promoting the recovery and development of the real economy. 2) The CSRC revised the measures for the administration of securities investment fund management companies and changed its name to the measures for the supervision and administration of managers of publicly offered securities investment funds. We believe that this revision improves the supervision system from the whole chain of “access – internal control – operation – Governance – Exit – supervision”, which meets the urgent requirements of the development of public funds in the new era. This revision adheres to the problem orientation and holds the bottom line, and formulates relevant detailed rules from the perspective of promoting the long-term development, diversified development, supporting the excellent and limiting the inferior of the industry, points out the road and sets a benchmark for the long-term and healthy development of industry institutions, lays a foundation for the formation of a two-way open, full competition and long-term industry atmosphere, which is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of the industry, so as to further improve the ability to serve the real economy.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
