Zhou's view: EU photovoltaic demand exceeded expectations, and the middle and lower reaches continued to improve month on month in the second quarter
(1) photovoltaic: overseas demand exceeded expectations, with the biggest marginal change in Europe: in the past few months, due to the continuous rise of traditional energy prices and electricity prices, the photovoltaic demand in Europe continued to exceed expectations; Recently, the EU has issued the "EU renewable energy plan", which proposes to expand the EU's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic grid connection target to 600gw by 2030, and force all residential buildings to use roofs Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ; after 2029; This will further enhance the long-term growth of the industry and increase the investment in household light storage. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the continued rise in the price of photovoltaic modules also verified that the demand exceeded expectations. We expect the shipments of Longji green energy and other module companies to improve significantly month on month in the second quarter. Mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, and Longji green energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) etc. benefit; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, GCL technology, Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc. (c) Power station, auxiliary materials and other post cycle links, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , etc.
(2) new energy vehicles: the battery terminal is the core of our current recommendation, and the profit margin of this link will improve in the second quarter; Recently Byd Company Limited(002594) released CTB technology to further enhance the integration of battery and body, which will consolidate the core competitiveness of leading battery enterprises in the future. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the production expansion of iron lithium materials will be gradually implemented (at present, the available capacity is about 1034000 tons, and it is expected that the national available capacity of lithium iron phosphate will reach 2998000 tons by the end of 2022, of which the increment in the third quarter is the largest). In the future, the competition will increase and the favorable profit will be transferred to the battery end. Overall, we believe that the short term is a good layout period, and the growth environment in the second half of the year will be better; We should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , etc; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) , etc.
(3) wind power: at present, the yield of wind power station is good, and the bidding volume is increasing; The bidding price of industrial chain products has stabilized at the bottom. At present, the high-quality leader at the manufacturing end is worthy of medium and long-term layout. Long term optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies benefit; Wind power plant investment and operators benefit in the short term.
Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) : the inverter business performs well and is optimistic about the rapid growth of energy storage and micro reverse
The revenue of inverter business doubled, and the heat exchanger business was under pressure in the short term. The company's energy storage and micro inverter products continue to take the lead, and the localization of electronic components consolidates the safety of the supply chain.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery increased by 169% in April
New energy automobile company: Byd Company Limited(002594) purchased and commissioned lithium products from Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) in 2022
Photovoltaic industry level: Jiangxi Province's 14th five year plan adds 16GW of photovoltaic power and 2gw of wind power
At the level of photovoltaic companies: Longji green energy will achieve 6.44gw of module shipments in Q1 2022
Wind energy industry level: Determination of Shanghai's "14th five year plan" wind power planning
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected and the industry competition is intensified
