In June, the pig price may be slightly corrected, and a new round of pig cycle has been started
Before the Mid Autumn Festival, the downstream consumer side is relatively strong, and the upstream price rise is relatively smooth. As of May 20, the national average selling price of pigs was 15.7 yuan / kg, up 0.4 yuan / kg on a weekly basis. From the supply side, the total daily slaughter volume of pig provinces in China also showed a continuous growth this week, showing a trend of increasing both in volume and price with the price of pigs. Judging from the relationship between volume and price, the downstream consumer's favorable price ability is relatively strong after the festival.
We remain optimistic about the price height and boom duration of the new "pig cycle". The correction of pig price in June will mark that the layout of pig cycle will enter the second stage of "pig price rising and performance cashing". The core indicators of concern at this stage are: (1) the absolute range of capacity change from May to July 2022 determines the duration of the boom stage of pig prices; (2) The first pig price height in the year from July to September 2022 determines the average position of pig price in the boom stage.
Zhou's view: the pig cycle is gradually fulfilled, and the bearing of planting and grain landscape continues to rise
In the performance fulfillment stage of the pig cycle, pay attention to the cost advantage and the rhythm of capacity release. Focus on recommending Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has both cost advantage and capacity growth flexibility; Enterprises with cost advantages and scale advantages Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . Relevant beneficiary objects: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc.
The pattern of wheat supply and demand is turbulent, and global food prices are under upward pressure again. Since March 2022, the continuous high temperature weather in India has led to the withering of wheat crops in the key growth period. On May 13, the General Administration of foreign trade of India issued a notice announcing a ban on wheat export on the grounds that food security was threatened. The promulgation of India's ban has further exacerbated the rising international wheat supply pressure since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war.
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China's leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (5.16-5.20): Agriculture underperformed the market by 0.37 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02% and the agricultural index rose 1.65%, underperforming the market by 0.37 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the seed sector led the rise, with an increase of 12.34%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (+ 20.31%), Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) (+ 19.10%), Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002086) (+ 17.30%).
Price tracking this week (5.16-5.20): pigs, yellow feather chickens, aquatic products, bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and prices rose month on month
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on May 20, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 15.74 yuan / kg, up 0.42 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of piglets was 33.93 yuan / kg, up 1.61 yuan / kg from last week. According to wind data, on May 20, the average price of white strip meat was 20.2 yuan / kg, up 1.42 yuan / kg from last week.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average chicken fry this week was 2.57 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of - 0.77%; The average price of wool chicken was 9.05 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.11%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 1.37 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of -20.81 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
