This week’s Chemical Market Overview
The market continued to rebound this week, of which Shenwan chemical index rose 4.27%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.03%; In terms of subject matter, new energy chemical materials have a strong performance. In the early stage, the subject matter has been under pressure due to the theme of super rise.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 208 Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 6 Chn Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.Ltd(000966) 00141
Major events of this week
The export products of phosphate fertilizer were differentiated in April, but they were still limited to a large extent year-on-year. In April, monoammonium phosphate exported 178700 tons, up 77000 tons month on month, down 193000 tons year-on-year. The year-on-year export was still less than half of last year. From the perspective of export places, monoammonium phosphate exports are still mainly concentrated in Brazil, Argentina and Australia. From the perspective of export provinces, Yunnan still accounts for the majority. In April, exports accounted for about 46%, and the cumulative export accounted for about 48%, which is significantly higher than 41% and 29% in 2020 and 2021, In other provinces, Hubei, Sichuan and Guizhou accounted for about 10% in April, which was relatively balanced. The proportion of Guizhou’s exports decreased slightly in April, and Hubei and Sichuan increased. In April, the export of diammonium phosphate was 194900 tons, with a month on month decrease of about 180000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 260000 tons. In terms of export places, diammonium exports are still concentrated in India and Southeast Asian countries. Among the export provinces, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hubei still account for the majority, of which Yunnan exports account for 55%, accounting for 54%, Hubei exports account for 42%, accounting for 34%. The export volume increased more in April. Guizhou basically did not export in April, accounting for 10%, which is less than about 20% of the exports in previous years.
Europe starts carbon tax ahead of schedule. On the afternoon of May 17, EU time, the environment, public health and Food Safety Committee (envi) of the European Parliament passed the bill on the establishment of carbon boundary adjustment mechanism (CBAM) with 49 votes in favour, 33 votes against and 5 abstentions. Compared with the schemes of the European Commission and the European Council, the scheme adopted by envi has made significant changes in the industry, inclusion time and the relationship between CBAM and the EU carbon market, including advancing the formal implementation time by one year, expanding the scope of the industry, including indirect emissions, etc. EU carbon tariffs may change significantly!
Investment advice
Since the bottom of April 27, the main indexes have rebounded significantly, among which the Shenwan chemical index has increased by more than 17%. What do the market care about in the follow-up? We believe that there will be differentiation after the rebound. It is suggested to focus on the targets with relatively certain performance and safety cushion in the second and third quarterly reports, such as Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . Recommended sub industries in the second quarter: phosphate fertilizer, soda ash, optical film, trichlorosilane, conductive carbon black potash fertilizer pesticide coal chemical industry
Risk tips
1. The epidemic affects the demand outside China. 2. Crude oil prices fluctuated sharply. 3. Changes in international policies affect industrial layout.
