Core view:
On May 17, the CPPCC National Committee held a special consultation meeting on "promoting the sustainable and healthy development of digital economy" in Beijing. Wang Yang, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, stressed that we should continue to strengthen, optimize and expand the digital economy, so as to better serve and integrate it into the new development pattern and promote high-quality development. Liu He, vice premier of the State Council, pointed out that we should support the sustained and healthy development of platform economy and private economy, and support the listing of digital enterprises in capital markets outside China.
"Constantly strengthen, optimize and expand the digital economy", the digital economy policy continues to increase, and continues to be optimistic about the new digital infrastructure. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. Vigorously developing the digital economy has become an important part of the 14th five year plan. In January 2022, the "14th five year plan" for the development of digital economy was issued, and the development of digital economy rose to the national strategic level. The plan emphasizes that digital economy is the main economic form after agricultural economy and industrial economy, and takes data resources as the key element. It is clearly proposed that by 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. In February 2022, the "big economic data" project was officially launched. On May 17, the CPPCC National Committee held a special consultation meeting on "promoting the sustained and healthy development of the digital economy", emphasizing "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding the digital economy, making it better serve, integrate into the new development pattern and promote high-quality development". We believe that "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding the digital economy" should be based on accelerating the development of digital economy infrastructure. With the accelerated growth of digital economy, the construction of new digital infrastructure will usher in accelerated development.
The CPPCC digital economy special session again mentioned "supporting the healthy development of platform economy", the signal of valuation repair of platform companies reappeared, capital expenditure is expected to return to the growth channel, and the prosperity of the server industry, the base of digital economy, was boosted. (1) Optimization of upstream forward-looking indicators. From the perspective of upstream key components, Xinhua Technology's monthly revenue index can be used as a priori index of the prosperity of servers and cloud computing. Generally, it is about 2-3 months ahead of the industry. Xinhua Technology's revenue growth has accelerated since 2021q3, with a year-on-year growth of 66.31% in March 2022; In the field of CPU, the revenue of Intel server chip business, a leading manufacturer, recovered and maintained stable growth, while the revenue of AMD chip business maintained rapid growth. (2) The total capital expenditure of Internet giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent showed a stable and rising trend. The capital expenditure of Alibaba and Baidu 2021q4 increased by 90.04% and 94.54% respectively year-on-year. Tencent 2021q4 capital expenditure returned to positive after negative growth for two consecutive quarters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.73%. It is expected that with the normalization of supervision, the valuation of platform economy enterprises is expected to be repaired, and the capital expenditure is expected to return to the growth channel. We believe that with the reversal of the bottom of the upstream supply side and the expected optimization of downstream capital expenditure, the computing infrastructure represented by servers will usher in a cycle inflection point in 2022.
Investment suggestions: we believe that "continuously strengthening, optimizing and expanding the digital economy" should be based on accelerating the development of the basic construction of the digital economy. As the cornerstone of the data economy, the server will be the first to benefit. The superposition of the platform economy is expected to be better, which will effectively drive the performance rebound of the industry leading companies. Continue to focus on recommending leading companies in the server industry Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) ( Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) . SZ), Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) ( Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) . SH) and IDC head companies Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) ( Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) . SH), Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) ( Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) . SZ), Wanguo data SW (9698. HK), etc.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, and there is a risk of insufficient supply of chips / components.
