As an export port carrying the mission of realizing the profits of the main industrial chain and promoting new products, components have a very important strategic position in the stage of introducing new technologies and oversupply. After a complete cycle of single crystal replacing polycrystalline, the competitive elements of component links are also changing. Among them, during the introduction period of new products from 2015 to 2019, the product brings obvious rate of return, which is the first competitive factor; 20182021: Although products are still an important factor, the intergenerational gap of products gradually weakens, cost becomes the first competitive factor, and component enterprises move towards silicon chip battery chip component integration. By 20212022: downstream distributed outbreak, channel brand has become crucial. Looking forward to the future again, we believe that channel brand is still an important competitive factor (in each transition period, the competitive factors in the first and second periods are cross acting), but at the same time, it is becoming more and more important to return to the product itself and focus on new technologies.
1. Industry - brief description: the commercial attributes are 2B and 2c, and the strategic position is very important, especially in the stage of new technology introduction and ICBC's oversupply.
Business model: the module is located at the end of the photovoltaic manufacturing link and has both 2B and 2C attributes. In terms of strategic position: components carry the profit fulfillment mission of the manufacturing end, which is particularly important in the period of new technology introduction and oversupply in the industry, and can help enterprises realize the relative stability of profits. In terms of product extension and synergy: the components directly face the end customers or their agents, and have the deepest understanding of the end needs. Therefore, it is possible to expand in energy storage, BIPV, power station development and operation, and the ceiling of long-term income is high.
Financial features: the roe of integrated component enterprises is 10-15%, which is similar to the main materials such as silicon wafer, but lower than the auxiliary materials such as inverter, adhesive film and glass; The pressure of working capital is less than that of auxiliary materials, slightly higher than that of batteries, silicon materials and other main materials. The main reason is that the component links need to prepare goods for the downstream (possibly overseas warehouses or subsidiaries); Current assets account for 60%, second only to inverters and adhesive films.
2. Resumption - competitive elements: from product - to integration (silicon chip - battery chip - module) cost reduction - channel brand (distributed rise), what will be the future?
20152019 (products): in the period of technological transformation in the industry, the intergenerational difference of single and polycrystalline products will have a significant impact on the yield of end owners. Therefore, enterprises mainly compete for product technology, and enterprises with leading single crystal layout or switching such as Longji, Jingke and Jingao benefit.
20182021 (cost): except for the differences in size, MBB, half piece, etc., there is basically no intergenerational difference of products, which has little impact on the yield of end owners. The subsidies of superimposed downstream power stations are cancelled, entering the era of parity. Therefore, enterprises mainly compete for integrated cost reduction, and Longji, Jingao, Jingke and other enterprises with perfect integrated layout benefit.
2021 - today (channel): the products of various enterprises are basically homogeneous, superimposed with the high growth of distributed installed capacity in China (the rise of leasing mode), Brazil (the distributed sales tax is levied in 23 years), Europe (the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made the government and residents pay more attention to energy security), which has increased the proportion of downstream distributed demand. Therefore, enterprises mainly compete with brand channels, Trina Solar, Jingao Enterprises with a large number of distribution countries such as Atlas and a high proportion of shipments benefit.
3. Prospect - return to the product itself: new technology and supply chain management are very important
Product technology:
New battery technology: the advantages and parameters of the new technology are different, and the difference of customer demand is superimposed. Distributed and ground power stations may adopt different products, and the product power will directly determine the acceptance of downstream customers.
Longji: distributed push HPBC (within the year or shipment of 2gw), which is mainly characterized by high efficiency, beauty and low price. Double sided products are adopted in ground power stations, and it is expected to achieve 30GW production capacity in 23 years.
Jingke and Trina Solar: it focuses on TOPCON, which is mainly characterized by high efficiency, strong compatibility and micro premium. Among them, Jingke has 16GW production capacity and may ship more than 10GW within the year. Trina Solar will put in 8GW of TOPCON production capacity in the second half of the year & for distributed 10gw210 182 size products.
Both Jingao and Atlas have multi line layout. TOPCON products are selected for ground power stations, but there may be differences in distribution. Atlas selects hjt and Jingao selects TOPCON or IBC. Both Jingao and Atlas will have TOPCON & hjt pilot lines put into operation within this year, and Jingao will expand the production of 6.5gw of TOPCON in mass production.
Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) : the main feature of hjt is high efficiency, high power generation and high price. At present, it has become the first shipment of hjt for many consecutive years. It is expected that more than 15gw of production capacity will be expanded in 23 years.
New scenarios of BIPV: the downstream application scenarios continue to expand, and the demand for BIPV and other products is expected to increase, bringing new directions for distributed market competition.
Supply chain management: (1) purchasing end: sign a long order to ensure the supply of materials (silicon, glass, etc.), predict the demand and identify potential risks (EVA, quartz, etc.). (2) Sales side: Overseas multi location layout reduces the risk of dependence on a single market (mainly large markets such as the United States, India and Europe), reasonably layout the overseas production and marketing system (overseas integrated production capacity) and avoid trade friction. (3) Transport side: the export volume of components has increased year after year. Cooperation with shipping enterprises ( Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Maersk, etc.) is conducive to safe delivery, efficient transportation and stable freight.
4. Investment: it is recommended to focus on [Longji green energy] (26 and 19x PE in 22 and 23 years respectively), [ Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ] (30 and 21x PE in 22 and 23 years respectively), [Jingke energy] (46 and 29x PE in 22 and 23 years respectively). It is recommended to pay attention to [ Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ], [atlas Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ].
Longji: HPBC components may bring excess profits. We look forward to the new technology products of ground power stations. The capacity expansion of overseas silicon wafers should deal with trade frictions and lay out equipment and auxiliary materials in all links.
Jingao: a steady veteran, step by step to promote a new round of technological change. Overseas silicon wafer production capacity continues to expand & decentralized shipments, coping with trade frictions, and layout auxiliary materials and equipment in all links.
Jingke: return to a to reduce financial expenses, and TOPCON mass production may improve profitability. The overseas integrated production capacity layout is perfect, and there is in-depth cooperation with battery equipment companies.
Trina Solar: the channel advantage continues to be maintained, and the multi line layout mainly promotes TOPCON to bring profit opportunities. Overseas silicon wafer capacity expansion to deal with trade frictions.
Atlas: the channel advantage will continue to be maintained, the dual route layout will be adopted, and the financial cost will be reduced by returning to a. Scattered overseas shipments to deal with trade frictions.
It is estimated that the net profits of Longji, Jingao and Jingke in 22 years will be 14.7 billion yuan, 4.7 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 26, 30 and 46x; In 23 years, it was 19.7 billion yuan, 6.8 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 19, 21 and 29x.
Risk tips: changes in overseas trade policies; New technology products and capacity distribution information are statistics and inferences based on public information, or deviate from the actual situation; Downstream demand is lower than expected; It is only for reference.
