Online recruitment industry: Based on the bilateral network effect of "people looking for people", the online rate is still at a low level
China's online recruitment industry is still far from the ceiling. In 2020, the scale of China's human resources service market accounted for 0.6% of nominal GDP, which were lower than 1.9% of Britain, 1.6% of Japan and 0.9% of the United States. The recruitment industry is expected to be the fastest growing track in the human resources service industry. The recruitment rate has exceeded 1 in recent years, indicating that the supply of jobs in the recruitment market exceeds the demand. Generation C has become the main online recruiter in the industry, and has become the main contributor of generation Z to online recruiters. It is expected that the average job hopping frequency of China's non-agricultural employees will increase from 1.8 times a year in 2020 to 2.1 times a year in 2025. We estimate that the ceiling of online recruitment Mau is about 110 million people, and there is still a certain gap between the current online recruitment platform and the ceiling.
The reasons for the low penetration of online recruitment industry are analyzed in three aspects: 1) from the perspective of algorithm: the online recruitment industry matches based on "people" to "people", which is more difficult than the traditional matching based on "people" to find "things" / "content"; 2) From the perspective of market structure: the scale of blue collar market is large, but the penetration rate is low; 3) There is no strong anti traditional orientation of online recruitment.
Boss direct employment: mobile + direct chat + AI matching to accurately solve market pain points
Boss direct employment makes efforts to "mobile + direct chat + AI matching" to accurately solve the market pain points. Boss direct recruitment was founded in 2013 and has become the largest online recruitment platform measured by Mau in China by 2020. It is one of the online recruitment companies with the most Internet gene. Its gross profit performance exceeds that of its peers. The adjusted net profit of non GAAP became positive for the first time in 2020q3, the net profit rate of 4q21nongap reached 32%, and the performance of dau / Mau exceeded that of its peers. We believe that there are four reasons to help the boss directly hire "latecomers": 1) take the lead in arranging the mobile terminal and make efforts to talk directly; 2) "Direct charging" is more friendly to small and medium-sized enterprises; 3) Accurate delivery to seize the user's mind; 4) Accurate matching, innovative model, improve the efficiency of job hunting and recruitment.
The Growth Logic of boss direct employment: 1) with the help of excellent product experience and bilateral network effect, the number of Mau and merchants continues to grow; 2) Data advantage + flexible package, matching different types of customer needs; 3) Aiming at the continuous development of blue collar sinking market, we launched "conch optimization" to accurately solve the pain points of blue collar; 4) Cross selling opportunities brought by further expansion of traffic
Revenue measurement and valuation
We estimate that the scale of online recruitment market is expected to exceed 130 billion in 25 years, and the income of boss direct online recruitment business is expected to reach 16.4 ~ 23.4 billion yuan in 2025. According to the calculation from the perspective of ARPU users, according to the increase rate of Internet users' penetration in the past, assuming that the penetration rate of white-collar and gold-collar workers increases by 2% every year, and the penetration rate of blue-collar market is relatively low at present. In the early stage of development, it is assumed that the penetration rate will increase by 4% / 3%. According to the increase rate of ARPU per capita salary in the past, it is estimated that the scale of online recruitment market is expected to exceed 130 billion in 2025. Referring to the penetration rate of other local life leaders, under conservative assumptions, it is predicted that the penetration rate of boss direct employment in online recruitment industry will reach 25% in 2025, and the revenue of boss direct employment online recruitment business is expected to reach 16.4 ~ 23.4 billion yuan in 2025.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, sharp fluctuations in China concept stock market, new users can not continue to register, ARPU improvement does not meet expectations, and the risk of industry competition intensifies
