\u3000\u30001. How to view the development of emerging kitchen small household appliances?
The air fryer market has been growing rapidly since 2016. In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, there were fewer opportunities to go out for dinner, a sharp increase in the demand for home cooking, accelerating the public's awareness of health products and increasing the demand for health products. These factors made China's air fryer market scale achieve a leap forward growth. In the future, with the multiple superposition of the general trend of "home economy + lazy economy + single economy + healthy economy", the demand for air fryers is expected to continue to rise in the future. In terms of competition pattern, traditional household appliance brands have advantages and take the lead. In terms of average price, due to the low technical threshold of products, the homogenization of medium and low-end products and the diversification of brands, the average price has decreased year by year. In the future, digitization and intelligence are expected to become the tipping point for the differentiation and scale development of the air fryer market. In addition, in the intellectualization of small kitchen appliances, we also found that more and more brands began to layout automatic cooking machine products. From the supply side, the functions of automatic cooking machine are becoming more and more diversified; From the perspective of ecological environment, the real driving force for the popularization of automatic cooking machines is the rapid development of prefabricated dishes and cold chain market, which solves the cumbersome cutting and preparation links in cooking. From the perspective of the industry, the scale of automatic cooking machines has increased rapidly. At present, the average price of automatic cooking machines in the online market is about 1000 yuan. With the upgrading of products and more integration and intelligence, the average price still has room to rise. According to our calculation, assuming that the average price in 2025 is 1500 yuan, it is conservatively estimated that the corresponding market scale under the penetration rate of 3% is 13.1-26.2 billion yuan; It is optimistically estimated that the market scale corresponding to the penetration rate of 10% is 43.7-87.5 billion yuan, and the single product is expected to open a market scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
\u3000\u30002. The impact of favorable real estate policies on the home appliance industry?
Dismantling the composition of electricity demand can be basically divided into relatively rigid new demand for completion and passive renewal demand, as well as elastic demand for additional allocation of stock houses (mainly air conditioning) and active renewal demand (such as redecoration of second-hand houses or active upgrading). Among them, the demand for kitchen electricity represented by range hood is still dominated by the demand brought by the sales of new houses, while the demand for ice washing is dominated by the demand for renewal. In addition to the demand for renewal of air conditioning, the demand for additional distribution of stock houses also occupies an important part. We expect that, on the one hand, the recovery of real estate in early 22 will lead to the release of new demand for kitchen electricity; On the other hand, the warming of policies such as consumption stimulus policy and hair dryer will give birth to the demand for renewal of stock houses and accelerate the sales of white electricity. (for details, please refer to household appliances: Why are you optimistic about the configuration of household electricity at the current time? -- 2022w2 weekly study)
\u3000\u30003. The impact of consumption stimulus policy on household appliance industry?
With the implementation of household appliance consumption subsidies in Beijing, it is expected that all parts of China will strengthen the activities of using consumption vouchers, exchanging old for new, and sending household appliances to the countryside, and the categories of household appliances will be gradually expanded from household appliances to emerging household appliances, so as to promote the renewal of household appliances and the release of new demand. With the easing of the epidemic in China, it is expected that major TV varieties with high penetration in China (such as air and ice washing, smoke stove and color TV), major small household appliances (such as rice cooker and microwave oven) and emerging categories with relatively low retention (such as floor sweeper and projector) are expected to benefit. (for details, please refer to household appliances: looking at the industry trend from the household appliance consumption stimulus policy - 2022w17 weekly study)
Investment suggestion: at present, we recommend two ideas: 1) real estate chain. The valuation is low and the real estate policy is loose. It is recommended to recommend post cycle targets such as [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ], [ Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ], [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ], [ Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ], [ Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ]; 2) Last year's 2q revenue and performance base pressure was low, or the target that can quickly repair 2q revenue (618 more sensitive varieties) after the epidemic improved may have stronger fundamentals. It is recommended to [ Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ], [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ], [ Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) ], [ Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ], [ Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) ].
Risk tips: the recovery of the epidemic is less than expected, the price of raw materials rises, the supply of core parts is short, the expansion of overseas markets is less than expected, and the market demand is less than expected due to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
