Thinking this week: pay attention to the change of detection prevention treatment supply chain under the anti epidemic
According to the press conference held by the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on May 13, under the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, the number of newly confirmed local cases and asymptomatic infections in China continues to decline, but the local transmission in some places has not been completely blocked, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe and complex “. We suggest looking at investment opportunities in complex epidemic prevention situations outside China from the perspectives of detection, prevention, treatment and supply chain:
Detection: under the nucleic acid detection and antigen self-test policies, we believe that the market capacity of ICL, detection reagents and raw materials / consumables may continue to grow. ICL recommends Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , pays attention to Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) , Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) , Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) , etc; Recommend Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , pay attention to Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) , Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) , etc. for nucleic acid detection reagents; Recommended infrastructure Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) etc.
Prevention: we are optimistic that the inclusion of covid-19 vaccine in the WHO UL list of Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) and other companies will improve the overseas sales and international promotion ability of vaccines. From the perspective of new infectious disease prevention and control, we suggest paying attention to the advantages of vaccine companies with strong R & D ability and leading technology platform in new vaccine R & D.
Treatment: with clinical progress and effects in mind, we propose to focus on the treatment: for the sake of clinical progress and effect, we suggest to focus on the Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) \ etc.
Supply chain: we believe that the large volume of downstream innovative drugs or authorized generic drugs (MPPs, etc.) is expected to drive the revenue growth of upstream supply chain companies, and API and cdmo companies with compliance capacity reserves, improved BD capacity of projects abroad and relatively good process development capacity are expected to make relative profits. We are optimistic about the supply chain of innovative drug production ( Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , and the whole pharmaceutical industry) The potential of MPP supply chain ( Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) etc.) and other companies to increase revenue and improve the internationalization ability of preparations. It is suggested to pay attention to the potential increment brought to the industry by the listing of domestic covid-19 specific drugs.
Performance recovery: short-term adjustment and continued to be optimistic about advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing
This week, the pharmaceutical sector fell 1.86%, 4.1 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking the penultimate in all industries. In terms of turnover, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 432.3 billion yuan, accounting for 10.6% of the total turnover of all a shares, down 2.3pct from the previous week, and 2.3pct higher than the central level since 2018. From the perspective of valuation, as of May 20, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 25 times, down 0.4 month on month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 121%, down 7.9pct from the previous week, lower than the central level in the past four years (180%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the pharmaceutical sub industry showed differentiation this week. The performance of medical devices (weekly increase of 4.6%) was relatively good, while the performance of biomedicine (weekly decrease of 3.1%), medical services (weekly decrease of 2.6%) and chemicals (weekly decrease of 2.6%) was relatively weak.
According to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, ① this week, only biological pharmaceutical companies rose by 1.7%, and Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) among vaccine companies rose by 10.2%, which may be related to the market’s concern about the sudden monkeypox virus infection in Europe and America, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) LED the rise after the recombinant covid-19 virus vaccine was included in the emergency use list by who, driving the overall mood rebound of the vaccine sector. We believe that the potential changes in HPV immunization procedures have little impact on the medium and short-term performance of each company. The ceiling of medium and long-term vaccine companies depends on the layout of each company’s technical platform and the echelon of varieties under research & listing. In essence, it is the Growth Logic of variety iteration + improvement of vaccination rate. We pay more attention to vaccine companies with rich variety echelon and large single products listed in succession in 2-3 years. We suggest paying attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) and other companies’ growth convergence after the listing of new varieties. ② The market value of domestic drugs and specialty drugs increased by 19.6% in the week, while the market value of domestic drugs and specialty drugs increased by 16.5% in the week, and the market value of the company increased by 16.5% in the week. We believe that the devaluation of RMB is expected to bring short-term performance flexibility to the pharmaceutical export industry chain, and the impact of each company is related to factors such as hedging policy and US dollar exposure; In the medium-term dimension, the export segmentation of advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing is a necessary option for industrial upgrading. With the release of production capacity and the strengthening of BD capacity, upstream API companies are expected to play an increasingly important role in the supply chain of generic drugs and innovative drugs outside China. Financially, it is reflected in the improvement of the turnover rate of fixed assets. We continue to be optimistic about the industrial upgrading trend of various fields of advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing (API, cdmo, innovation support tools, etc.).
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the “core assets” and “sector concept” so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of “grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation”.
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: 1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo, and other subdivision areas, such as API, cdmo, and so on, with API, and so on, and so on: 1) manufacturing sector: API, and so on, and so on: 1) manufacturing sector: API, and cdmo, and so on: the subdivision of the subdivision of the subdivision, and so on, with API, and cdmo, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on to make a recommendation for the API, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on the API, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on to make a subdivision of the API, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on the API, and so on the API, and so on, and so on the API, and so on, and so on etc.
2) upstream: upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on: upstream: upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of recommending Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) 8810 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) etc., pay attention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) etc.
3) innovation: equipment and pharmaceutical companies with international capabilities recommend Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, etc., and pay attention to Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; recommending Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) ‘ \ , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The end of the epidemic was not as expected; R & D progress is less than expected.
