Investment advice
The stimulus policy continued to work, and the financial sentiment gradually warmed up. On May 20, 2022, the central bank cut the five-year LPR interest rate by 15bp to 4.45% higher than expected, and the stimulus policy continued to work to improve market liquidity and confidence. On Friday, the net inflow of funds from the north also reached the highest value since the beginning of the year, and the fund sentiment gradually warmed up. Panasonic has a wide denominator. High growth industries sensitive to interest rates will give priority to income, and ERP may start the process of mean value regression.
The offline scene is expected to recover, and the dawn of consumption recovery has appeared. From the perspective of the structure of social zero total amount, although online channels have increased rapidly in recent years, the proportion has slowed down, which was 29.1% in April 22. The obstruction of offline scenes is the key to suppressing consumer demand. With the effective implementation of the epidemic policy, offline commerce and transportation are expected to gradually recover from the end of May to the beginning of June. Tracking the subway travel data of major cities, the subway passenger volume still fell by about 45% year-on-year in early May, but it was mainly caused by the shutdown of Shanghai subway. As Shanghai plans to gradually restore public transport from May 22, offline consumption is expected to recover, and the bottom of profits of large consumer enterprises may have come.
The impact of the epidemic is basically reflected, and the valuation cost performance is obvious. The latest expected performance growth rate of big consumption in 22 years (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery) was 22.9%, down 1.7pct from the previous month. All primary industries continue to slightly reduce the expected growth rate, or have basically reflected the impact of the epidemic and external shocks. PE / PEG has dropped significantly, and the valuation cost performance is prominent. In terms of industry configuration, it is the first to promote food and beverage with sustained prosperity. In the early stage, there are more reductions, and the industry is more flexible. High growth industries can benefit from loose liquidity and pay attention to social services and beauty care.
Market Review
Rise and fall: all industries in the primary industry of large consumption rose, with beauty care (3.3%), textile and clothing (2.9%) and light industry manufacturing (2.3%) leading the rise.
Turnover: 13.27 billion yuan, down from the industry average daily consumption 8%, accounting for 16.2% of the overall daily average turnover of a shares.
Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: capital outflow narrowed. Equity financing – 2.94 billion yuan; Shareholders reduced their holdings by -7.14 billion yuan; New Development Fund + 2.55 billion yuan; Financing capital + 3.02 billion yuan; Land port link capital + 4.35 billion yuan.
Main capital flow: most industries show a net outflow state, and the net outflow amount of main capital in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, commerce and retail is large Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (food and beverage), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) (textile and clothing) ranks first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: the northward net capital inflow of various industries increased significantly, and the net inflow of food and beverage and household appliances ranked first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (food and beverage), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, the media, food and beverage and household appliances industries ranked first in the net southward capital flow. Meituan-w (social services), Tencent Holdings (media) and Li Ning (textile and clothing) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the south.
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 6.6% (6.5% last week); The seller’s recommendation index is 46.8, which is low; The turnover rate of Shanghai stock market was 0.8% (0.9% last week), and that of Shenzhen stock market was 2.0% (2.0% last week).
Hot topics: K-12 education, smart wear, Baijiu, smart speakers, yuanuniverse.
Risk tips
The risk of continuous recurrence of the epidemic, the risk of external shock, the risk of market fluctuation and the deviation of data selection.
