After the central government lowered the lower limit of the first house mortgage interest rate on the 15th, the interest rate cut fell to the ground on Friday, and the LPR over five years was reduced by 15 basis points, reflecting the government's determination to stabilize real estate. The strength of steady growth monetary policy boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and steel prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Friday. On the cost side, the third round of coke lifting and lowering was completed, with a cumulative decrease of 600 yuan / ton, and the billet cost further decreased. This week, the production of blast furnace was flat month on month, the production level of electric furnace continued to decline under the continuous loss, and the total output of steel decreased significantly month on month. Under the contraction of supply, the apparent consumption has not been raised, and the situation of weak supply and demand is obvious. In terms of import and export, the growth rate of external demand in April was lower than expected. In May, with the gradual digestion of the phased shortage of supply and demand caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the pressure on commodity prices under the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, overseas steel prices rose and fell. It is expected that the phased recovery of external demand for steel may end in the first half of the year.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
