Talk every Monday:
The decline of crude oil demand is lower than that of supply, and the supply and demand is still tight. On the demand side, EIA, OPEC and IEA lowered the growth expectation of global oil demand in 2022. IEA: global oil demand in 2022 is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day to 99.4 million barrels per day, which is flat compared with the demand forecast of the previous month. OPEC: global oil demand in 2022 is expected to increase by an average of 3.4 million barrels per day to 100.2 million barrels per day, down about 300000 barrels per day from the demand forecast of last month. EIA: in 2022, the global oil demand is expected to increase by an average of 2.2 million barrels per day to 99.6 million barrels per day, down about 200000 barrels per day from the previous month.
The supply side lacks flexibility, and the global crude oil supply is expected to decline by nearly 1 million barrels / day in April. According to the IEA, Russia interrupted crude oil supply by nearly 1 million barrels per day in April, resulting in a decrease in global oil supply of 710000 barrels per day to 98.1 million barrels per day. IEA further predicts that Russia’s lost capacity may expand to nearly 3 million barrels / day from July. OPEC production is limited. In April, OPEC output increased by 150000 barrels per day to 28.65 million barrels per day, which was lower than the production quota of 270000 barrels per day allowed by the agreement, and there was no obvious intention to increase production.
Crude oil demand is expected to improve marginally in the third quarter, and the price is expected to remain high. The rising price of natural gas, the demand for power generation boosted the demand for fossil energy, and the operating rate of refinery increased month on month with the end of refinery maintenance season.
US crude oil inventories decreased, production increased and the number of drilling rigs increased. On May 13, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.394 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and SPR inventory decreased by 5.01 million barrels to 538 million barrels. Last week, US crude oil production increased by 100000 barrels to 11.9 million barrels per day. In addition to the strategic reserve, the import of commercial crude oil increased by 299000 barrels / day to 6.568 million barrels / day last week, and the export of crude oil increased by 641000 barrels / day to 3.52 million barrels / day,. According to Baker Hughes, the number of drilling rigs in the United States this week was 728, an increase of 14 compared with the previous week and 275 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada was 88, unchanged from last week and increased by 29 in. Among them, there are 576 oil production rigs in the United States, 13 more than the previous week and 224 more than the previous year.
Under the background of global carbon emission reduction, refining and chemical supply constraints exist for a long time. Private refining and chemical enterprises have significant competitive advantages and guaranteed profits. From the perspective of long-term supply and demand, the refining and chemical industry will continue to maintain a good trend, the existing leading enterprises are expected to maintain the scale advantage, and the profit center may be improved. In the future, there is still room for the upstream and downstream production capacity of refining and chemical leaders, and they have the ability and advantage to expand the scale compared with other enterprises in the industry. The industry concentration may continue to improve, the performance growth certainty is strong, and the market of large refining and chemical sector is expected to continue. We suggest continuing to pay attention to the leading private refining enterprises Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) .
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC’s primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell by + 3.93%, ranking seventh among 30 industry indexes. This week, the CSI 300 index was + 2.23%, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was + 1.70% relative to the Shanghai index. Rise and fall of petroleum and petrochemical sub sectors: oil exploitation (+ 5.71%), other petrochemical (+ 4.27%), oil sales and storage (+ 2.90%), oilfield services (+ 2.77%), engineering services (+ 2.24%), oil refining (+ 0.73%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the top five stocks in the petroleum and petrochemical sector this week: Daqing Huake Company Limited(000985) (+ 18.70%), Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (+ 18.33%), Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) (+ 14.42%), Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (+ 13.28%), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (+ 12.25%); The top five stocks rose or fell: Hunan Yussen Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002986) (- 2.91%), Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) (- 1.91%), Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) (- 1.00%), Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) (+ 0.00%), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) (+ 0.23%).
Risk warning: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; The risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the risk of continued deterioration of the global covid-19 epidemic;
