Core view: the five-year LPR is reduced by 15bps, and the demand side is expected to be further improved
After the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission lowered the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate, the one-year LPR was sharply reduced by 15 basis points on Friday, and the first mortgage interest rate of the two policy combinations reached a minimum of 4.25%, clarifying the signal of loosening the current round of mortgage interest rate regulation, which is expected to further improve demand side expectations. At the same time, this round of loose monetary policy will also release more working capital to a certain extent and improve the financing environment of real estate enterprises. Since the middle of May, Suzhou, Hangzhou and other core second tier cities have begun to introduce relaxation policies, but according to the experience of previous rounds of periodic regulation, there is still much room for the release of urban policies in this round. On the whole, the epidemic situation in China is improving. With the relaxation of monetary policy and the continuous promotion of urban policies, we expect that the sales growth rate of the industry is expected to hit the bottom in the third quarter, and the sector still has good investment opportunities to maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry.
Policy side: the five-year LPR is reduced by 15bp, and the implementation of urban policies continues to be promoted
At the central level: the central policy keeps the tone of "no speculation in housing" and promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market unchanged; The Bureau of statistics released the industry data from January to April, and the development investment and sales data continued to decline year-on-year; The quoted interest rate of the loan market was announced. The one-year LPR was 3.7%, and the five-year LPR was 4.45%, down 15 basis points.
At the local level: the purchase and sale restrictions in several core second tier cities were relaxed, the transaction threshold of second-hand houses was lowered in Hangzhou, the number of houses limited to three-child families was increased by one, and the exemption period of value-added tax was shortened from five years to two years; Yinchuan abolished the "silver eight articles" and cancelled the purchase and sale restrictions; Chengdu relaxed the recognition standards for the number of housing units and families without housing; Yinchuan, Changchun, Shijiazhuang, Nantong and Taizhou lowered the down payment ratio of first and second homes; When buying second-hand houses in Hainan, the down payment ratio of provident fund loans was reduced to 30%; There is no restriction on the purchase of second-hand houses in Dalian. Non registered residence residents can purchase houses without 12 months' social security.
Market side: single week turnover continued to decline year-on-year
Sales side: in the 20th week of 2022, the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities in China was 2.21 million square meters, down 49% year-on-year and 0% month on month; From the cumulative value, the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities has reached 43.09 million square meters since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 43%. Since the beginning of the year, the total growth rate of new house transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China has been - 43%, and the trend of each line of cities is basically the same. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 11 cities across the country was 1.07 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 28% and the former value of - 18%; Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area has been 18.58 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 33% and the previous value of - 33%.
Land side: in the 20th week of 2022, 100 large and medium-sized cities across the country launched a land planned construction area of 28.98 million square meters, with a transaction land planned construction area of 17.61 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 56% and a transaction premium rate of 3%. The planned construction area of land traded in first tier cities was 570000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 76%; The planned construction area of land traded in second tier cities was 5.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 70%; The planned construction area of land traded in the third tier cities was 11.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42%.
Financing side: the issuance scale of credit bonds and overseas bonds decreased year-on-year
In the 20th week of 2022, credit bonds issued 3.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45%, a month on month decrease of 45%, an average weighted interest rate of 3.49%, and a month on month increase of 31bps; Overseas bond issuance was US $630 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42%.
Risk tips: (1) the recovery of industry sales is less than expected, the improvement of financing is less than expected, and the capital risk of real estate enterprises is further increased; (2) Regulatory policies changed beyond expectations, and industry fluctuations intensified; (3) The spread of the epidemic has affected consumers' confidence in buying houses.
