Talk every Monday: Food and drink from the perspective of online sales
The current covid-19 epidemic and its prevention and control policies in 22 years are expected to have a certain impact on the food and beverage industry. In April 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 2.95 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, the largest decline since April 2020; Among them, catering revenue decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, which was the sub item with the largest decline. The epidemic has impacted some consumption scenarios and reduced terminal demand. Therefore, it is suggested to choose industries with strong performance certainty or rigid demand in the investment of food and beverage industry. Even under the strict City closure policy, online sales can continue to a certain extent compared with offline sales, and even play a role in replacing offline sales. Therefore, it may be necessary to pay more attention to online sales.
In April, online sales of most food and beverage sub industries fell year-on-year. Among them, the online sales of main categories in April (year-on-year growth): Baijiu 559million yuan (-8.29%), rice wine 19million yuan (-31.38%), wine 150million yuan (-26.05%), foreign wine 178million yuan (-4.89%), other wines 27million yuan (-13.16%), beer 142million yuan (-3.13%).
Baijiu: online sales have declined. Except for the Spring Festival, online sales in 2021 are lower than those in 2020. It is suggested that investors should pay due attention to the risk of declining terminal demand in the Baijiu industry.
Beer: since April 21, the previous continuous growth momentum has ended. In the past 14 months, the year-on-year growth rate has been positive in 6 months. It is suggested to strictly select excellent companies in the beer industry and look for α Investment opportunities.
Wine, foreign wine and other wines: the sales growth rate has declined since 21 years. Among them, the growth rate of wine has been negative for one year since April 21, and the demand has decreased significantly. Therefore, it may be that wine lacks industrial investment opportunities at present. The growth center of other wines of foreign wine has decreased significantly. Although it has maintained positive growth on the whole since April 21, investors are advised to pay attention to the risk of Industry Valuation reconstruction caused by the decline in the growth rate of foreign wine and other wines.
Infant food: infant liquid milk and infant condiment have maintained a high online sales growth since 2020. The growth rate of goat milk powder continued to be the highest in 21 years, but the growth rate of goat milk powder remained the highest in most of the year.
In infant food, infant milk powder accounts for the highest proportion and has strong rigid demand. It still maintains a relatively stable sales growth during the epidemic period, and currently has a relatively reasonable valuation. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the infant milk powder track and seek investment opportunities for excellent companies.
Market Review
In the recent week, the food and beverage index rose or fell by + 1.31%, ranking 24th among the 31 industries in Shenwan, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92pct. Among the sub industries, soft drinks (+ 3.38%), snacks (+ 2.82%) and pre processed food (+ 2.49%) performed relatively well.
The top 5 gainers of individual stocks: St Xifa, Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , St Huangtai
Top 5 stocks with declines: Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co.Ltd(601579) , Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) , Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991)
Investment strategy
Key recommendations: 1 For the beer industry with improved competition pattern, high-end certainty and good recent sales data, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) . 2. some progress has been made in business transformation. Through acquisition, the whole industrial chain of Baijiu from production to sales is opened up, and it is expected to usher in a performance and valuation reshaping Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) . 3. Companies that occupy a leading position in subdivided fields and have a good competitive pattern and strong ability to raise prices are recommended Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) . 4. Ternary organism with strong downstream demand, limited upstream bargaining power and leading position in oligopoly pattern in horizontal competition.
