At present, China's mainstream hydrogen production process modes include industrial by-product hydrogen, coal gasification, natural gas hydrogen production, methanol hydrogen production and water electrolysis. This report will study the above five hydrogen production methods from four aspects: resources, cost, carbon emission constraints and technology, and analyze the evolution of hydrogen production supply pattern: short-term coal gasification has advantages and long-term PEM has large space for hydrogen production.
From the perspective of resources, China has resource advantages in hydrogen production from coal and electrolytic water; Hydrogen production from coke oven gas is affected by the decline of coke supply and feed gas; China is highly dependent on natural gas imports, and hydrogen production faces tight supply of raw materials; Methanol as a secondary energy, hydrogen production will face resource crowding by other downstream industries.
From the perspective of manufacturing cost simulation, the cost of hydrogen production by coal gasification in China is the lowest. In other hydrogen production modes, the cost of hydrogen production is lower in some areas with price advantages of resources (natural gas, methanol and industrial electricity price). Since 2022, affected by the rising prices of coking coal, natural gas and methanol, the cost of hydrogen production in relevant chains has increased to a certain extent. In terms of investment intensity, coke oven gas by-product hydrogen and methanol hydrogen production are the lowest, followed by natural gas hydrogen production, and electrolytic water hydrogen production is the highest.
From the perspective of carbon emission constraints, the carbon emission intensity of coal gasification hydrogen production is the highest. For example, according to the average carbon price in April 2022, the cost of coal gasification hydrogen production will increase by 0.12 yuan / m3; However, hydrogen production from coal gasification also has the potential to achieve more economical CCS; If coal to hydrogen + CCS technology is adopted, the cost will increase by 0.7 yuan / m3-0.8 yuan / m3. The carbon emission of hydrogen production from methanol takes the second place. The carbon emissions of hydrogen production from coke oven gas and natural gas are close to each other and low.
If the coal gasification hydrogen production + CCs mode is considered, the cost is close to that of natural gas hydrogen production in some parts of China; In the future, if the price of purchased electricity decreases or the off grid renewable energy self generation mode is adopted, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will be close to that of hydrogen production from coal gasification + CCs.
The future cost reduction space of alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production mainly comes from the reduction of electricity price and energy consumption. For example, by 2035, the on grid price of renewable energy will be 0.2 yuan / kW H and 2050 renewable energy on grid price 0.13 yuan / kW h. The average cost reduction space of hydrogen production from alkaline electrolytic water is 24% and 36%. By 2025, with the improvement of electrolytic energy consumption efficiency, the cost reduction space will be about 24%; The cost reduction caused by the reduction of relevant depreciation is 1-2%.
The future cost reduction space of PEM electrolytic hydrogen production mainly comes from the reduction of electricity price and energy consumption, extension of service life, reduction of equipment depreciation and scale efficiency. By 2035 and 2050, the average cost reduction space of PEM electrolytic water hydrogen production will be 22% and 31%. By 2025, the energy consumption efficiency of PEM electrolysis will be improved, and the cost of hydrogen production from PEM electrolytic water will be reduced by about 24%; Depreciation decreased by about 6-8%; The increase of stack life is expected to reduce the depreciation cost by 30% - 40%. At the same time, greater cost reduction space comes from scale efficiency.
Investment suggestion: short-term coal gasification hydrogen production occupies the advantages of resources and cost, and the technology maturity is high; And its investment intensity is high. It pays attention to relevant equipment manufacturing and engineering companies upstream of the industrial chain. Hydrogen production from long-term electrolyzed water, especially PEM hydrogen production, relies on technological progress and material breakthrough, which has large room for cost reduction. At the same time, it has strong adaptability to renewable energy power generation under off grid mode, and benefits from the downward advantage of electricity price; Focus on relevant companies focusing on the manufacturing of proton membrane, catalyst, bipolar sector and electrolytic cell in PEM hydrogen production industry chain.
Risk tip: the technological progress and material breakthrough of hydrogen production from electrolytic water are slow, and China's carbon emission constraints are lower than expected.
