Core view: the inflection point in the first quarter has appeared, and it continues to improve in the second quarter
Quarterly data: the inflection point of the first quarter has been found, and the supporting facilities are under pressure
In 2022q1, the net profit margin and gross profit margin of Chinese tire enterprises were repaired, and the tire industry reversed.
Among them, 2021q4 and 2022q1 Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) except for overseas production bases (mainly domestic sales and exports), the net profit fell seriously, mainly due to the high proportion of revenue in the Chinese market and the key layout of supporting markets, which was more impacted by the rise of raw materials The difference between and overseas base is not consistent with 35.
In 2021, the output of commercial vehicles in China was 4.6602 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.95%. Especially from Q3 in 2021, the output of commercial vehicles fell sharply year-on-year, and the output of all steel tires in Linglong China production base decreased. The export revenue of the race wheel increased. In 2021, thanks to the launch of new production capacity, the output of all steel tires increased by 1.94 million, of which the output of China base increased by 820 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 984 at present, they are all semi steel tire production capacity. Recently, a series of stable economic policies have been issued from the central to local governments. At the same time, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, it is expected that the logistics and transportation industry and infrastructure construction industry will gradually recover, and the demand for truck tires is expected to pick up.
Annual data: both outside China declined, but the profits of overseas markets were better than those of China
In 2021, the overall Chinese revenue of Chinese tire A-share listed companies basically remained unchanged, and the overall overseas market revenue increased year-on-year; Affected by the rise in sea freight and raw material prices, the gross profit margin of A-share listed tire enterprises in the Chinese market fell sharply, at the lowest level in the past 10 years, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.02-9.66 percentage points. The gross profit margin of overseas markets also declined, with a decline range of 5.49-14.28 percentage points. After the decline, the gross profit margin of overseas markets is still in a high range, and it is difficult for some enterprises to maintain profit and loss balance in the Chinese market.
The high price of raw materials fell, the sea freight fell, and Q2 is expected to continue to improve
In 2022q2, the price of raw materials fell, the sea freight of China and Thailand decreased, and the devaluation of RMB was good for the export business. It is expected that the epidemic will also be gradually alleviated, the downstream demand is expected to be released, and the performance of the tire industry will continue to rise.
Industry rating and investment suggestions based on the above analysis and considering the prosperity of the industry, the industry is given a "recommended (maintained)" rating.
It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Gui Zhou Tyre Co.Ltd(000589) , Jiangsu General Science Technology Co.Ltd(601500) , Triangle Tyre Co.Ltd(601163) , Giti Tire Corporation(600182) , Qingdao Doublestar Co.Ltd(000599) , Aeolus Tyre Co.Ltd(600469) .
Risk tips focus on the company's performance falling short of expectations, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy exceeding expectations, the risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials, the risk of sharp rise in sea freight, the risk of international trade friction, the risk of project progress falling short of expectations, the risk of environmental protection and safe production, the risk of overseas operation, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of economic downturn, etc.
