Last week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by + 1.25% in the week, ranking 25 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry.
Shanghai Stock Index (+ 2.02%), Shenzhen Component Index (+ 2.64%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (+ 2.23%) and gem index (+ 2.51%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW tourism and scenic spots (+ 4.34%), SW Education (+ 3.22%), SW sports II (+ 1.76%), SW professional services (+ 1.46%), SW hotel catering (+ 1.10%).
Top five gainers in social service industry: Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) (+ 24.13%), St Kaiyuan (+ 18.22%), Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) (+ 14.97%), Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) (+ 14.52%), Dalian Shengya (+ 13.49%);
The top five declines in social service industry: St Caesar (- 7.89%), Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) (- 5.52%), St Mingcheng (- 5.47%), ST Yishang (- 4.52%), Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (- 2.92%).
Core view:
Recently, the epidemic in China has spread in many places, which has a great short-term impact on traditional offline consumption, but also spawned some new lifestyles. In terms of catering, subject to the impact of the epidemic, prefabricated dishes have become the new favorite of more and more home office workers. AI media data show that since 2022, the sales of prefabricated vegetables have increased significantly. According to the consumption data of HEMA in 2022, the sales of prefabricated new year vegetables have increased by 345% year-on-year; Ding Dong buys vegetables. During the Spring Festival, the sales volume of high-end prefabricated vegetables increased by more than three times year-on-year, 3 million prefabricated vegetables were sold in seven days, and the customer unit price doubled year-on-year; The sales volume of prefabricated vegetables on Taobao increased by more than 100% year-on-year. China Central Television Network reported that orders for prefabricated vegetables in Shanghai have increased explosively since the outbreak of the epidemic. The person in charge of the fresh food business department of a retail group told China Central Television that the sales of prefabricated vegetables in China increased by more than 100% year-on-year in March, and the year-on-year increase in Shanghai in nearly half a month was more than 250%. With the improvement of consumers’ awareness of prefabricated dishes and the cultivation of consumption habits, it is expected to further catalyze the rapid development of the industry. Ncbd data show that the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2021 and is expected to exceed 830 billion yuan by 2025, of which the scale in the C-end market will account for nearly 30%. According to the five year (20212025) work plan of China Cuisine Association, at present, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes in China is only 10% – 15%, which is expected to increase to 15% – 20% in 2030. In Japan, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes has reached more than 60%. In China’s catering market, which is similar to Japanese food culture to a certain extent, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes still has great room for improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to the upstream and downstream industrial chains [ Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) ].
Risk warning: global epidemic control; National regulation policy; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
