This week’s topic:
This week, we analyzed how to look at the power sector at the current time from four aspects: new energy operators, thermal power transformation new energy enterprises, hydropower and distributed photovoltaic.
Core view
New energy operators: high growth space + stable growth attribute, and the valuation is expected to improve
On the one hand, carbon neutrality promises to drive the accelerated transformation of energy. At present, more than 20 provinces have clearly put forward wind power and photovoltaic development plans, with a total newly added installed capacity of nearly 600gw and broad growth space. On the other hand, under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, power investment is expected to improve due to its stable growth attribute, and the second batch of large base projects may be accelerated. Overall, new energy operators have both growth space and stable growth attributes, and their valuation is expected to improve.
Transformation of thermal power into new energy: it is expected that the profitability of the company with a high proportion of long-term cooperation is expected to take the lead in repairing
On the income side, the electricity price in many places has risen in a high proportion; On the cost side, there are frequent policies, and the coal price of Changxie is expected to fall back to the policy limit. On the whole, under the background that the electricity prices in many places have risen in a high proportion, the thermal power profitability of enterprises with a high proportion of Changxie coal is expected to take the lead in repairing.
Hydropower: under the characteristics of abundant cash flow, the defense advantage is prominent, the incoming water is abundant, and the performance of this year is thickened
Hydropower units have high-quality assets, with the characteristics of long business cycle, improved profitability over time, abundant cash flow and high industrial barriers. They have prominent defense advantages under the current market style. At the same time, the incoming water situation is good this year, which is expected to increase the performance. Since the beginning of the year, in the Yangtze River Basin, the outbound flow of Xiluodu has increased by 72.43% year-on-year, that of Xiangjiaba has increased by 37.87% year-on-year, and that of the Three Gorges has increased by 13.60% year-on-year; In Yalong River Basin, the outflow flow of Ertan increased by 9.46% year-on-year, and that of Jinping class I increased by 9.91% year-on-year.
Distributed photovoltaic: the policy catalytic superposition has a high tolerance for module price and is optimistic about the large-scale volume of the whole year
22q1: the newly added photovoltaic grid connected capacity in China is 13.21 million KW, of which centralized photovoltaic power accounts for 32.86%; Distributed photovoltaic accounted for 67.15%. According to the data in April, China’s newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 3.67gw, with a year-on-year increase of + 109.71% and a month on month increase of + 56.17%. We judged that the key contribution came from distributed photovoltaic. At present, the price of components is still at a high level. Based on the component price, the sensitivity of distributed PV and centralized PV to the component price, we expect that the proportion of distributed PV will remain high in the new PV installation this year.
Investment suggestions:
New energy operators have both growth space and stable growth attributes, and their valuation is expected to improve. In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to pay attention to [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [Longyuan Power] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ]. In terms of new energy targets for thermal power transformation, under the background that the electricity prices in many places have risen in high proportion, the thermal power profitability of enterprises with a high proportion of Changxie coal is expected to be the first to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) ] [ An Hui Wenergy Company Limited(000543) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)]. In terms of water and electricity targets, the defense advantage is prominent under the characteristics of abundant cash flow, and the abundant incoming water thickens the performance of this year. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ] [ China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) ]. Distributed PV has been continuously promoted by the double carbon target in the medium and long term, and is catalyzed by the promotion policy of the whole county in the short term. At the same time, based on the module price and the sensitivity of distributed PV and centralized PV to the module price, it is optimistic about the annual installed capacity. In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to pay attention to [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ] [ Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ] [ Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) ] [ Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) ].
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the demand for electricity is less than expected, the risk of price reduction, the risk of coal price fluctuation, the rebound of the epidemic than expected, the intensification of industry competition, and the technological progress is less than expected
