With the rapid expansion of the market scale of AD as, its development is inseparable from the chassis by wire. According to the calculation of China Automobile Association, the market scale of the main functions of ADAS will reach 84.4 billion yuan in 2020, and we expect it to reach 227.9 billion yuan in 2025. At present, autonomous control is the main trend in all kinds of ADAS, and its development depends on the chassis by wire technology. In the new energy vehicle industry development plan (20212035) of the State Council, it is mentioned to break through the technology of wire control execution system, and in the documents of the Ministry of industry and information technology in recent two years, it is also mentioned to speed up the research and development of wire control chassis / wire control steering.
The chassis by wire is highly matched with the intelligent electric vehicle. Wire control is to use wire (electrical signal) to control the actuator, so as to realize the purpose of controlling the car. Therefore, the chassis by wire is more matched with the intelligent electric vehicle: ① the chassis by wire reduces the mechanical connection, provides more flexibility for the chassis layout, and does not need a vacuum source to provide vacuum assistance. ② The battery capacity of electric vehicles is larger, the degree of electrification is higher, and more electronic and electrical equipment can be carried, laying the hardware foundation for the chassis controlled by wire. The chassis by wire is mainly composed of brake by wire, steering by wire, suspension by wire, throttle by wire and shift by wire. Among them, brake by wire and steering by wire have the highest technical barriers, late development and low penetration rate.
Brake by wire: it is divided into parking brake by wire and service brake by wire.
Parking brake by wire (EPB): it has experienced cable integrated development, with the advantages of: ① decoupling between hardware and stronger expansibility; ② It can be used as service brake in emergency. We predict that in 2025, China's EPB market will reach 22 billion yuan, with large domestic substitution space.
Brake by wire: including electro-hydraulic brake system (EHB) and electro-mechanical brake system (EMB).
EHB: developed on the basis of the original traditional hydraulic braking, it can be divided into two technical schemes: one - box and two - box. One - box has become the main development trend with higher integration, small space occupation, light weight, low cost and high energy recovery efficiency Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) is the first independent supplier of mass production one box in China. The first product wcbs was officially mass produced in early June 2021.
EMB: replacing the hydraulic device in the traditional braking system with an electromechanical system has outstanding advantages over EHB, but it lacks a standby braking system and is technically difficult. At present, it is still in the research stage. In April 2021, Great Wall Seiko released its self-developed EMB and planned mass production in 2023. It will become the first enterprise in the world to realize mass production of EMB.
Broad market space: we expect that the penetration rate of wire controlled service braking in new energy / fuel passenger vehicles will reach 30% / 16% respectively in 2025. Calculated by the value of single vehicle of 2300 yuan, the corresponding market scale will reach 12.9 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 87% from 2021 to 2025.
Steering by wire: the automobile steering system has gone through the path development of [mechanical steering system (MS) - mechanical hydraulic power steering system (HPS) - electronic hydraulic power steering system (EHPS) - electronic power steering system (EPS) - steering by wire (SBW)], and the degree of electrification is gradually improved. Compared with EPS, the biggest difference of SBW is that there is no mechanical connection between the steering wheel and the actuator. SBW has obvious advantages in cost control, chassis design flexibility, adjustable driving sense, driving safety and occupied space. However, the penetration rate of SBW is still very low due to high technical barriers and limited by the old national standards. With the lifting of restrictions on the shift by wire in the revision of the national standard in January 2022 and the gradual mass production of relevant products from foreign suppliers, SBW will accelerate its penetration. We predict that in 2025, the SBW penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars will reach 15%, and that of fuel passenger cars will reach 4%. Based on the value of 4000 yuan per vehicle, the corresponding market scale will be 8.9 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 186% from 2021 to 2025.
Suspension by wire: both semi-active suspension and active suspension belong to suspension by wire. The active suspension technology can generally adjust the stiffness and damping at the same time. The common ones are hydraulic suspension and air suspension. The biggest advantage of suspension by wire is that it can respond according to different road conditions and driving conditions, so that the car has a better driving experience, and is controlled by electric signals and more intelligent. At present, it is widely used in luxury brand models. We believe that, on the one hand, the high-end development of independent brands has further expanded the scale of China's medium and high-end market; On the other hand, with the reduction of the cost of wire controlled suspension, the price of wire controlled suspension is gradually exploring, which is expected to penetrate into the mainstream market in the range of 100000 - 200000 yuan. We predict that in 2025, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) / fuel passenger vehicle by wire suspension will reach 12% / 7% respectively. Calculated by the value of 15000 yuan per vehicle, the corresponding market scale will be 34.9 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 48% from 2021 to 2025.
International tier 1 wire controlled suspension has an early layout and deep research and development heritage. Wiebuck, AMK and continental are the top three companies in the world in the field of wire controlled suspension. At present, independent suppliers mostly focus on the supply of parts for suspension by wire, and Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) have supporting customers. We expect that due to the rapid catch-up of independent suppliers' technology, faster response speed than foreign tier 1, and more in line with the needs of independent brand host manufacturers to reduce costs, it is expected to accelerate domestic substitution.
Throttle by wire and shift by wire: the penetration rate is high, among which the throttle by wire has nearly 100%, the market increment is small, and the pattern is relatively stable, so it is difficult to replace it by domestic products. The revenue of the main Chinese suppliers Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co.Ltd(603788) and Nanjing Aolian Ae&Ea Co.Ltd(300585) in the business of throttle by wire and shift by wire has stagnated after experiencing rapid growth from 2012 to 2017.
Investment strategy: since 2021, the new energy vehicle market has entered a period of rapid development. From January to April 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in China was 1.49 million, a year-on-year increase of + 115%, and the penetration rate of new energy reached 22 9%, yoy + 12 6 pc t 。
The redefinition of NOA function, the arms race triggered by smart cars, the accelerated expansion of ADAS, and the chassis by wire welcomes 100 billion blue ocean by taking advantage of the intelligent electric east wind. The pattern in the early stage of development is uncertain, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry.
Target of concern: recommendation 1) Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . SH). The layout of eight business segments has been completed, the customer structure has been continuously optimized, and the revenue has broken through the ceiling of the traditional system. At present, the maximum amount of single vehicle supporting is about 30000 yuan, and the revenue is expected to grow rapidly after the release of production capacity; 2) Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) . SH), independent brake tap, mature technology, rich EPB product matrix, and wire controlled service brake products have been approved by the main engine factory and obtained mass production orders; 3) Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ( Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) . SH) the product layout in the field of air suspension is perfect and the technology is mature, and has obtained multiple mass production orders. Pay attention to Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ( Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) . SZ) and acquire AMK to make up the technical reserve related to air suspension. After AMK technology is localized, it has obtained a large number of orders.
Risk warning: the development progress of automobile intellectualization is less than expected; The breakthrough of wire control technology is less than expected; The growth of new energy vehicles is less than expected; The high-end development of independent brands is less than expected; Uncertainty of relevant technology penetration and domestic substitution process; Focus on the company's performance not meeting expectations; The impact of repeated outbreaks outside China on the industrial chain; The recovery of global chip shortage is less than expected; The price of upstream raw materials continues to rise; International shipping prices continued to rise.
